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LAB moves to 19% deficit with YouGov, drops vote share in all latest by-elections & loses seat to CON

10/3/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

After budget debacle, Tories slump to er… 19-point lead, highest in government for 30 yearshttps://t.co/Da8rb748dG pic.twitter.com/aH69ITa2Mf — Matt Chorley (@MattChorley) March 10, 2017 Tonight's results: one Con gain from Lab, one Con gain from UKIP, one LDem gain from Con, two Con holds. https://t.co/Q1lXVZh7PI pic.twitter.com/LNNipm8SFb — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) March 10, 2017 The Corbyn leadership disaster continues The first full post budget voting intention poll is out and YouGov in the Times finds the Tories extending the lead to 19%…

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The first electoral test following the budget – tonight’s local by-elections

9/3/2017 Editor Comments 0 Comment

The by-elections held today are the first electoral test of the Budget announced yesterday. Here, for reference, is what happened after the 2016 Budget: Budget Local By-Elections 2016: March 17th 2016 Lincolnshire Independents GAIN Ashby de la Launde and Cranwell on North Kesteven from Conservative on a 44% swing from Conservative to Lincolnshire Independents Liberal Democrat GAIN Aylsham on Broadland from Conservative on a 5.5% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat Conservative HOLD Hutton on Redcar and Cleveland on a…

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Maybe next time the Tories will have to emulate the GE2015 EdStone to show they’ll honour manifesto commitments

9/3/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

OmNICshambles, like the LDs tuition fees pledge, will be remembered The Chancellor, Philip Hammond, has been in full defensive mode as he has sought to fight off the criticism that his National Insurance changes for the self-employed are in breach of a GE2015 Conservative manifesto pledge. His responses that this just applied to one form of NIC charges really didn’t resonate and he’d be well advised to find another way of dealing with the attacks. What is surprising is that…

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The PB/Polling Matters podcast: Northern Ireland election fallout, LAB leadership polling, & budget reaction

8/3/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

1) Part one: Keiran speaks to Mick Fealty of Sluggerotoole.com about what we learned from last week’s elections in Northern Ireland, who the winners and losers were and what happens next… 2) Part two: Keiran discusses this week’s polling of Labour members conducted by YouGov on behalf of Ian Warren at Election Data. Keiran is joined by Laurence Janta-Lipinski and Emma Bean to discuss how vulnerable Corbyn is and who might lead Labour into 2020 if he stands down. The…

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If the opposition leader wasn’t so feeble May/Hammond would find it harder to ignore specific manifesto commitments

8/3/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The 2017 version of the pasty tax? At GE2015, less than two years ago, the Conservative made a very specific pledge – if elected there would be no increase in VAT, National Insurance Contributions or income tax. Well today’s big budget announcement from the Chancellor that the self-employed are going to see the NI contributions going up is going to be a hard one to explain and we’ve already seen the start of a storm brewing. One section of the…

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Why I am not playing budget bingo this year

8/3/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

William Hill budget bingo pic.twitter.com/9z1SjyOJo8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 8, 2017 .@SportingIndex budget betting https://t.co/rSKroIPwt1 pic.twitter.com/pqJnXS9FjF — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 8, 2017 The novelty of this year’s budget, which takes place after PMQs at about 1245, is that George Osborne is neither Chancellor nor shadow chancellor – the first time this has happened since 2005. So few people have held the shadow or actual position that you have to go back nearly a quarter of a century to…

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In a move reminiscent of Mrs Thatcher the PM sacks Lord Heseltine for his BREXIT bill rebellion

8/3/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Making a martyr of Hezza mightn’t be a smart idea In a key vote in the House of Lords on the Article 50 bill the government was defeated by 366 to 268 on an amendment that would give Parliament a ‘meaningful vote’ on the Brexit deal when that is resolved. Upto 20 CON peers are said to have rebelled and others were encouraged to abstain. Later Heseltine, who’s now 83 was a leading cabinet minister in the Thatcher era who…

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Mrs. May’s government suffers a second defeat in the Lords on the BREXIT bill

7/3/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

.@faisalislam has the latest as the Brexit Bill is defeated for a second time by the House of Lords https://t.co/Z5blfgWybW — Sky News (@SkyNews) March 7, 2017