First polls give the French Presidential debate to Macron and he remains the strong odds-on favourite

First polls give the French Presidential debate to Macron and he remains the strong odds-on favourite

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It’s been a big night in the French Presidential election with the first major TV debate between the top five candidates. Ahead of the event the assumption had been that the contender most at risk was the young centrist independent and odds-on betting favourite, Emmanuel Macron. The event went on for a staggering three and a half hours. An Elabe poll afterwards asked viewers who they though was the most convincing. According to Reuters the split was Macron 29%, the…

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Osborne’s new job: Rewarding failure

Osborne’s new job: Rewarding failure

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Don Brind on the ex-chancellor’s extra job “He wrecked the economy and he’ll wreck anything he gets his hands on.” — the verdict on the new editor of the London Evening Standard from a Tory activist vox popped at the Conservative Spring Forum in Cardiff by Channel Four’s Michael Crick. Brutal as it was, that judgement on the erstwhile Chancellor George Osborne didn’t, in my opinion, go far enough. Not only was Osborne a failure as a Chancellor but he…

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As ICM reports another gigantic CON lead Number 10 moves to squash the “snap election” speculation

As ICM reports another gigantic CON lead Number 10 moves to squash the “snap election” speculation

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ICM/Guardian poll CON 45% (+1) LAB 26% (-2) UKIP 10% (-1) LD 9% (+1) GRN: 4% (-1) This morning there have been two significant announcements from number 10. Firstly article 50 will be invoked next week on March 29th. Secondly it is being made very clear that there will be no general election. This is how the Guardian is reporting the latter: “…In the past Theresa May has said repeatedly that she has not plans to call an early general…

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Don’t get complacent – Scotland’s future in the Union is hanging by a thread.

Don’t get complacent – Scotland’s future in the Union is hanging by a thread.

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Embed from Getty Images The case for Scottish Independence is full of holes writes Keiran Pedley but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen. Since Nicola Sturgeon’s bombshell speech last week, where she indicated her intention to ask for a second referendum on Scottish Independence, the conventional wisdom appears to have been on something of a journey. The original reaction was one of panic. This was it. Just as we all feared, Scotland was heading for Independence as a consequence of…

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The French election looks set to be biggest non-UK/US political betting event ever

The French election looks set to be biggest non-UK/US political betting event ever

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With five weeks to go Macron remains strong odds-on favourite Exactly 5 weeks on from today, on April 23rd, voters in France will participate in the round one of the presidential election and betting interest has been enormous. Currently on the Betfair exchange alone £7.5m of wagers have been matched and looks set to be bettered in size terms only by BREXIT and Trump. Given that the French don’t allow punters to access British online bookmakers while in France then…

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Blindsided. Leavers have given the PM a free rein over the Article 50 negotiations and they’ll come to regret it

Blindsided. Leavers have given the PM a free rein over the Article 50 negotiations and they’ll come to regret it

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Embed from Getty Images From now on Theresa May can ignore Parliament Theresa May has striven mightily at every stage to avoid Parliamentary restraint on her Brexit negotiations with the rest of the EU.  She fought in the courts to the bitter end against the principle that the triggering of Article 50 required the prior approval from Parliament.  A White Paper was extracted out of the government in a manner akin to that used by Lord Olivier in Marathon Man. …

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ComRes becomes the 3rd pollster in a week to have UKIP fourth

ComRes becomes the 3rd pollster in a week to have UKIP fourth

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ComRes for Indy and S Mirror CON 42 LAB 25 LD 12 UKIP 10 Over the past week YouGov, Ipsos-MORI and now ComRes have found UKIP in fourth place. Partly this is down to the LDs advancing and partly to UKIP’s shares slipping. LAB, meanwhile is now a colossal 17% behind in very serious trouble indeed. Things don’t look good for Corbyn’s team in the May round of local and Mayoral elections. Since Corbyn was re-elected as leader last September…

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UKIP: circling the whirlpool

UKIP: circling the whirlpool

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How does Nuttall save his party from irrelevance? UKIP was very good for Brexit: if the party had never been created, Britain would almost certainly still be a member of the European Union.* Brexit, by contrast, has been disastrous for UKIP. Stripped of their two greatest assets – their mission and by far their most effective leader – UKIP has struggled since last July to find a purpose or a direction. Compounded by internal divisions, the estrangement of their major…

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