UKIP drops to ZERO MPs following Carswell’s decision to leave the party

UKIP drops to ZERO MPs following Carswell’s decision to leave the party

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In happier times – Farage with his CON defector in 2014 But no by-election, he’ll remain in Commons as an independent This lunchtime’s announcement from Douglas Carswell, the MP for Clacton, that he’s to leave UKIP is hardly a surprise. He had been largely detached from the party for months and and it really became a question of not if he would leave the purples but when. He always appeared uncomfortable with UKIP’s emphasis on immigration and campaigned in the…

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Even at only 1/2, Macron remains the value bet

Even at only 1/2, Macron remains the value bet

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The centrist looks close to home and hosed right now France is no stranger to revolutions. It’s therefore hardly surprising that there’s a ready temptation – particularly after the Brexit vote in the UK and Trump’s election in the US – to seek both contemporary and historic parallels in the possibility of a Le Pen victory in May. Indeed, it’s so tempting that the odds have come quite out of line with the real chances. There are only two simple…

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Local By-Election Review March 2017

Local By-Election Review March 2017

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Higher Croft on Blackburn with Darwen (Lab defence, death of sitting member) Result: Labour 446 (58% +12%), United Kingdom Independence Party 190 (25% -8%), Conservative 133 (17% -4%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 256 (33%) on a swing of 10% from UKIP to Lab However, late yesterday afternoon it was discovered that the Labour candidate should not have been nominated as he was employed by an organisation that Blackburn with Darwen council have a material interest in, therefore the…

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Growing in size Britain’s weirdest voting group: The Kippers who now think leaving the EU is wrong

Growing in size Britain’s weirdest voting group: The Kippers who now think leaving the EU is wrong

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Over the last few months, as those who follow the site will know, I have been writing posts and tweets about the YouGov Brexit tracker which come which comes out two or three times a month. The actual question is “In hindsight do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the EU?” The overall picture is that the gap between those who think the outcome was wrong has and those right has narrowed and for the…

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NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: London, Second Referendum(s), Snap elections & more

NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: London, Second Referendum(s), Snap elections & more

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  On this week’s new (revamped) episode of the PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran touches briefly on the shocking events of this week before being joined by Leo Barasi and Rob Vance to discuss the latest polling data and elections news. Keiran unveils new Polling Matters / Opinium polling on whether there should be a second EU referendum with changes that might surprise you, Leo explains why he thinks there will not be a snap election (although Keiran argues May is…

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Local By-Election Preview : March 23rd 2017

Local By-Election Preview : March 23rd 2017

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Yesterday, Westminster was attacked. If the aim was to stop democracy, then it clearly failed. Higher Croft on Blackburn with Darwen (Lab defence, death of sitting member) Result of council at last election (2016): Labour 45, Conservatives 16, Liberal Democrats 3 (Labour majority of 26) Result of ward at last election (2015): Labour 1,283 (46%), United Kingdom Independence Party 927 (33%), Conservative 570 (21%) EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 28,522 (44%) LEAVE 36,799 (56%) on a turnout of 65% Candidates…

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Article 50 will be invoked next week with the country still totally split over whether it is the right thing to do

Article 50 will be invoked next week with the country still totally split over whether it is the right thing to do

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The YouGov tracker is not shifting either way If the Prime Minister was hoping that the ending of the parliamentary approval process for Article 50 would swing opinion more behind the move then she is going to be disappointed. The latest YouGov tracker came out shortly before the Westminster terror attack and as can be seen in the chart the country is still totally divided on whether it is a good thing or a bad thing. There’s been very little…

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