At the last Gorton by-election the Tories, led by the visionary pro-European Ted Heath, came within 557 votes of victory

At the last Gorton by-election the Tories, led by the visionary pro-European Ted Heath, came within 557 votes of victory

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How will the BREXIT Tories do now? After their extraordinary gain of a by-election seat from LAB in Copeland we have heard very little of the blue team’s prospects in Manchester Gorton which is expected to take place on May 4th. Yet as the panel shows the Tories got very close to victory in the seat in 1967. No one is suggesting that the Tories have any chance whatsoever. The result from 1967 and what we know about the area…

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Gloomy polling news for Mr. Corbyn from the pollster that’s returning to GB politics after 12 year absence

Gloomy polling news for Mr. Corbyn from the pollster that’s returning to GB politics after 12 year absence

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A new poll conducted by GfK, the first published GB political survey since GE2005 when it operated as NOP, has  Corbyn as unpopular among Brits as Trump. GfK surveyed a nationally representative sample of 1,938 GB adults between March 1st and March 15th, 2017 and found: Prime Minister Theresa May is more popular than the Government overall. 46% of GB adults approve of the job she is doing as Prime Minister (just 33% disapprove) while 40% approve of the way the…

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For first time since being sacked after getting GE2005 spot on NOP (now GfK) is back doing UK political polls

For first time since being sacked after getting GE2005 spot on NOP (now GfK) is back doing UK political polls

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UK Polling Report Welcome back – you’ve been missed One of the great jokes whenever people interested in polling have met in recent years is that is the person from NOP (now GfK) popping up to remind to remind us that the firm in its last published political poll got the outcome of the 2005 general election absolutely right. For whatever reason the Independent, which had commissioned the firm decided, to switch pollsters after 2005 and since then GfK has…

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If they hadn’t have gone into coalition the LDs would likely have been favourites in Manchester Gorton

If they hadn’t have gone into coalition the LDs would likely have been favourites in Manchester Gorton

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But at GE2015 the yellows came in 5th losing their deposit Although the arrival of George Galloway in the Manchester Gorton race has caused a tightening of the Lib Dem odds the position is nothing like as strong as it would have been if the party had not gone onto the Coalition with the Conservatives in 2010. The chart above shows the extraordinary strength the party had in ward elections in the constituency in the period between the Iraq war…

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Politics in a democratic one party state

Politics in a democratic one party state

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  Aged 69, Seneca the Younger had spent many years in the service of the Emperor Nero, but suspecting him of treason, the Emperor ordered him to commit suicide.  Seneca cut open the arteries of his own arms and the veins of his legs and knees, but his blood flowed slowly and his death did not come quickly.   To hasten the process, he drank poison, but still death eluded him.  Finally he was carried into a hot bath and suffocated…

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If this is accurate, then you might wish to update your Trump impeachment, conviction, resignation, and exit date betting

If this is accurate, then you might wish to update your Trump impeachment, conviction, resignation, and exit date betting

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(THREAD) BREAKING: Harvard professor and @CNN political analyst Juliette Kayyem says, per sources, Michael Flynn may have flipped on Trump. pic.twitter.com/kkG4h4gqvw — Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) March 25, 2017 (1) First, as an attorney I want to make clear that, if this @CNN analyst's sources are correct, the #Russiagate scandal is blown wide open. — Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) March 25, 2017 (2) The FBI flips witnesses, turning them into cooperating individuals, _only_ when they can help secure conviction of a bigger…

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New poll finds increasing support for a second referendum with 66% of REMAIN voters now wanting one

New poll finds increasing support for a second referendum with 66% of REMAIN voters now wanting one

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Via @JamesPurefoy a pic from the anti-BREXIT march and a reminder to put your clocks forward tonight pic.twitter.com/FbAkXAIccA — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 25, 2017 But overall most of those sampled continue to be against Keiran Pedley looks at new poll numbers from the Polling Matters / Opinium series ahead of the Prime Minister invoking Article 50 this week. Listeners to this week’s (revamped) PB/Polling Matters podcast (see below) will know that we have a new survey out this week….

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UKIP drops to ZERO MPs following Carswell’s decision to leave the party

UKIP drops to ZERO MPs following Carswell’s decision to leave the party

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In happier times – Farage with his CON defector in 2014 But no by-election, he’ll remain in Commons as an independent This lunchtime’s announcement from Douglas Carswell, the MP for Clacton, that he’s to leave UKIP is hardly a surprise. He had been largely detached from the party for months and and it really became a question of not if he would leave the purples but when. He always appeared uncomfortable with UKIP’s emphasis on immigration and campaigned in the…

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