Flynn’s move looks dangerous for Trump and punters make it a 52% chance that the President won’t last the full term

Flynn’s move looks dangerous for Trump and punters make it a 52% chance that the President won’t last the full term

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Breaking: Mike Flynn has offered to be interviewed in probe of Trump team's Russia ties in exchange for immunity https://t.co/8lUo2e92MY — The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) March 30, 2017 Latest @betdatapolitics chart on Trump exit year betting pic.twitter.com/QWfVWo0KgK — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 31, 2017 Time to bet on the President’s survival? Maybe. Maybe not Until now I have steadfastly ignored the betting on how long Donald Trump will remain in the White House simply because my own personal feelings…

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Looking forward to the County Council Elections 2017

Looking forward to the County Council Elections 2017

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With no by-elections tonight and five weeks until the local elections, I thought it might be an idea to have a look at how the counties (last elected in 2013) might go this time around. Of course, since that night we have had a large number of things happen, the first Conservative majority government since 1996, Milliband standing down and Corbyn getting elected as Labour leader (twice) and the small matter of an EU referendum, therefore I have had a…

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Can we end this “snap election” speculation – TMay, like Dave before, simply does not have the power to call one

Can we end this “snap election” speculation – TMay, like Dave before, simply does not have the power to call one

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Everybody seems to be ignoring the Fixed Term Parliament Act In the latest PB polling matters podcast we hear that polling has been going on asking the public what they think of the idea of having an early General Election. The responses are interesting but they ignore one pertinent fact: The prime minister, unlike all those before Cameron, does not have the personal power to go to the monarch and seek the dissolution of Parliament. The Fixed Term Parliament Act…

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PB/Polling Matters podcast on Brexit, Article 50 polling, Scotland and the return of GfK

PB/Polling Matters podcast on Brexit, Article 50 polling, Scotland and the return of GfK

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After a momentous day in British politics, Keiran and Rob discuss public opinion on Brexit and  Keiran looks at Scotland’s future with Ipsos Mori Scotland Research Director Mark Diffley. Finally, Keiran talks more about the new GfK political polling that has Corbyn’s approval rating among Brits being as weak as Donald Trump’s. More on that polling (including methodology and data tables here). The segment on Scotland dominates this week’s episode and is a particularly wide ranging discussion including new information on…

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I’d feel a lot more comfortable about the Brexit negotiations if Osborne was playing a key role

I’d feel a lot more comfortable about the Brexit negotiations if Osborne was playing a key role

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Beside him May & her team are political pygmies The swift way in which Angela Merkel has undermined Theresa May’s Article 50 invocation plan underlines how critical it is that Team GB has the very best team in the coming two years. That the German Chancellor should so attack May’s Brexit negotiation plan within four hours shows how much she needs a highly skilled political team at her side. A politically astute PM, advised by a politically competent Foreign Secretary,…

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For the record where BREXIT opinion stood on Article 50 day

For the record where BREXIT opinion stood on Article 50 day

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YouGov’s tracker continues to show little movement Brexit opinion – the party supporter splits Brexit view by socio-economic grouping It’s top of the Issues Index as well BREXIT the top issue concerning the country in latest @IpsosMORI Issues index pic.twitter.com/68lmErZt7W — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 29, 2017

Welcome to Article 50 day as the UK steps into the unknown

Welcome to Article 50 day as the UK steps into the unknown

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https://twitter.com/JananGanesh/status/846863305218183169 https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/846830241075093504 The big day arrives So we are here and Theresa May will meet her self imposed target of formally invoking the extraction process from the EU before the end of March. The signed letter invoking Article 50 will be delivered to the president of the EU in Brussels in a few hours. At home Mrs May is said to be planning to call on the nation to unite behind her and the government as it goes about the…

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If indeed GfK is part of a conspiracy against Corbyn then how come other pollsters have similar numbers?

If indeed GfK is part of a conspiracy against Corbyn then how come other pollsters have similar numbers?

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There’s a fierce attack in the Canary on GfK and its research director known well to PBers, Kieran Pedley. The chart says it all and shows all three sets of published leader ratings in March. And you know what – all the numbers are very close – the Canary favourite Corbyn is doing appallingly however you look at the numbers. So if there is a conspiracy against Labour’s bed-blocker leader then Opinium and Ipsos MORI are involed as well. The…

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