French polling watchdog intervenes after Russian report that Fillon’s now ahead in polls

French polling watchdog intervenes after Russian report that Fillon’s now ahead in polls

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French polling watchdog issues warning after Russian news report claims Fillon regains lead. He's 3rd https://t.co/d4TLEo9qRk — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 3, 2017 Fillon moves sharply in the betting to 19% at Macron’s expense All the movememt in the French betting in the past 24 hours has been to the Republicn candidate, Francois Fillon, following a Russian news report quoting a Russian “poll” that he’s now in the lead. This is the Telegraph report “..In a statement released on Sunday,…

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Who will speak for Millennials?

Who will speak for Millennials?

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Young voters lack political representation says Keiran Pedley. So who is going to step up? One of the topics discussed on the latest PB/Polling Matters podcast was the striking difference in views on Brexit by age. This week saw the first political poll by my company (GfK) for 12 years. One of the questions we asked was whether Brits thought Brexit was the “right decision” or the “wrong decision”. The results can be found in the chart below. Table 1:…

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The country’s leading psephologists bring more bad news for Corbyn

The country’s leading psephologists bring more bad news for Corbyn

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Rallings & Thrasher predict in May's locals the Tories will gain 50 seats, Lib Dems gain 100 seats, Labour to lose 50, and UKIP to lose 100 pic.twitter.com/5mcIRDmBxr — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 2, 2017 Full Rallings & Thrasher forecast NESV compared with 4 years ago is Con 31% (+5), Lab 29% (nc), LD 22% (+9) UKIP 10% (-12). — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 2, 2017 Rallings & Thrasher predict Tories will gain seats for UKIP but the Tories could also lose…

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With three weeks to go the value French President bet is that Marine Le Pen won’t do it

With three weeks to go the value French President bet is that Marine Le Pen won’t do it

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Embed from Getty Images   Alastair Meeks looks to follow up on his Dutch success There are few more baffling markets at present than the market on the next French president.  It’s a very active market  with more than £8 million traded so far, so its oddities can’t be put down to there being few punters.  Yet the odds seem very hard to square with the polling. The electoral system is designed to produce a centrist.  The voting takes place…

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Corbyn’s ratings hit an historical low for a LAB leader at this stage

Corbyn’s ratings hit an historical low for a LAB leader at this stage

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Only one of those in the chart led party to GE victory Corbyn has the worst ratings after 18 months of any LAB leader since @IpsosMORI began asking the question 40 years ago pic.twitter.com/niNq4pqTdE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 1, 2017 Punters give JC a 39% chance of staying till GE On the betting markets it is a 61% chance that Corbyn will cease to be leader before general election pic.twitter.com/j71k8rdBrd — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 1, 2017

The Multiplier Effect: Regional, Social and Brexit swing make a bad story worse for Corbyn’s LAB

The Multiplier Effect: Regional, Social and Brexit swing make a bad story worse for Corbyn’s LAB

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Polling analysis: CON’s getting biggest swings where it matters most Writing a thread on why Labour might do even worse than headline polling figures suggest feels uncomfortably like kicking a man when he’s down. However, if that’s what’s happening then it needs reporting and interpreting; I am only the messenger. And it is happening. Poll after poll has reported differential swings across regions, social groups and Brexit alignment. I’ve therefore looked at all the polls published in March to see…

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If the trend in today’s London poll was replicated in Manchester Gorton then LAB might struggle

If the trend in today’s London poll was replicated in Manchester Gorton then LAB might struggle

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Today’s main polling news has been a London poll by YouGov for Queen Mary University where Professor Phil Cowley is one of the leading politics dons. He created the above charts. The main figures with changes on April last year were:- CON 34+4 LAB 37-9 LD 14+7 UKIP 9-4 GRN 5+1 As we all know London has a very different demographic profile from most of the country and there are very few places indeed which come close to matching it….

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Maybe a reason why LAB gets poor media coverage is that the Corbyn-appointed PR team is not up to it

Maybe a reason why LAB gets poor media coverage is that the Corbyn-appointed PR team is not up to it

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This. Every Lab MP should read this & be embarrassed. The Lib Dems do vg rebuttal, quotes and opposition research… pic.twitter.com/Ts9OiXewPY — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) March 30, 2017 It is as if the red team has given up I have never been a fan of Seumas Milne, the PR chief of Corbyn’s Labour, not because of his politics but that he is so poor at the job. The series of Tweets highlighted by Sam Coates of the Times above…

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