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The signs are that UKIP will get a pasting in the May 4th elections

4/4/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

They’re defending seats won at their 2013 highpoint For me this week is all about the May 4th elections. Yesterday the Tory psephologist, Lord Robert Hayward, gave his annual presentation and predictions and there’s a fair bit of coverage in today’s press. Unlike the Rallings and Thrasher seat projection which is confined to the English local council elections Lord Hayward embraced Wales and Scotland as well and in the latter suggested that would produce more big problems for LAB including…

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Richard Nabavi on the Brexit Blame Game

3/4/2017 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Now that the trigger has been pulled, the EU27 and the United Kingdom have begun the public posturing over the Brexit negotiations. So far this is not looking encouraging. Theresa May’s warm words about wanting a ”deep and special partnership between the UK and the EU” to include ”both economic and security cooperation” seem to have been, bizarrely, interpreted as a threat. The EU continues to insist that we have to settle the outline of the ‘exit deal’ before we…

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It wasn’t an April Fool after all: Farage is PaddyPower’s new political advisor

3/4/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Last Thursday the Dublin-based PaddyPower issued a press release embargoed for April 1st announcing that former UKIP leader had become the firm’s political advisor. With minutes it was assumed that this was an April Fool and the story barely got any coverage. Well we were wrong. This has actually happened and the firm has confirmed that he’s now taken up the role. Noting that the bookie lost on Trump last November Farage had these comments to make: “.. Clearly, Paddy…

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French polling watchdog intervenes after Russian report that Fillon’s now ahead in polls

3/4/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

French polling watchdog issues warning after Russian news report claims Fillon regains lead. He's 3rd https://t.co/d4TLEo9qRk — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 3, 2017 Fillon moves sharply in the betting to 19% at Macron’s expense All the movememt in the French betting in the past 24 hours has been to the Republicn candidate, Francois Fillon, following a Russian news report quoting a Russian “poll” that he’s now in the lead. This is the Telegraph report “..In a statement released on Sunday,…

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Who will speak for Millennials?

3/4/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Young voters lack political representation says Keiran Pedley. So who is going to step up? One of the topics discussed on the latest PB/Polling Matters podcast was the striking difference in views on Brexit by age. This week saw the first political poll by my company (GfK) for 12 years. One of the questions we asked was whether Brits thought Brexit was the “right decision” or the “wrong decision”. The results can be found in the chart below. Table 1:…

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The country’s leading psephologists bring more bad news for Corbyn

2/4/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Rallings & Thrasher predict in May's locals the Tories will gain 50 seats, Lib Dems gain 100 seats, Labour to lose 50, and UKIP to lose 100 pic.twitter.com/5mcIRDmBxr — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 2, 2017 Full Rallings & Thrasher forecast NESV compared with 4 years ago is Con 31% (+5), Lab 29% (nc), LD 22% (+9) UKIP 10% (-12). — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 2, 2017 Rallings & Thrasher predict Tories will gain seats for UKIP but the Tories could also lose…

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With three weeks to go the value French President bet is that Marine Le Pen won’t do it

2/4/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Embed from Getty Images Alastair Meeks looks to follow up on his Dutch success There are few more baffling markets at present than the market on the next French president. It’s a very active market with more than £8 million traded so far, so its oddities can’t be put down to there being few punters. Yet the odds seem very hard to square with the polling. The electoral system is designed to produce a centrist. The voting takes place…

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Corbyn’s ratings hit an historical low for a LAB leader at this stage

1/4/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Only one of those in the chart led party to GE victory Corbyn has the worst ratings after 18 months of any LAB leader since @IpsosMORI began asking the question 40 years ago pic.twitter.com/niNq4pqTdE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 1, 2017 Punters give JC a 39% chance of staying till GE On the betting markets it is a 61% chance that Corbyn will cease to be leader before general election pic.twitter.com/j71k8rdBrd — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 1, 2017