politicalbetting.com – Page 958 – The web's premier resource for political betting.

Tories take a stonking 21% lead with ComRes, up 4% in month

15/4/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Tories take 21% lead with @ComResPolls poll for Sunday Mirror/Independent Con 46 (+4) Lab 25 (nc) LD 11 (-1) UKIP 9 (-1) Greens 4 (nc) — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 15, 2017 This ComRes poll indicates Labour are headed for the mother of all beatings at the next general election. Surely with 20% plus leads Labour members will come to their senses and ditch the electoral liability that is is Corbyn Which might explain the support for a new centre…

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What ‘good’ will look like for the parties in this year’s May elections

15/4/2017 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

Who should win what, and what will the misses and bonuses mean? The expectations game is an unavoidable part of politics and one that pundits and practitioners play with relish. It is, of course, such an intrinsic part of betting that it’s difficult to meaningfully isolate betting from expectations. There are more direct practical consequences of how a party performs against expectations. It’s one thing to lose seats; it’s another to lose more than people expect – or, for that…

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Latest locals: CON gains from LAB in Middlesbrough but makes heavy weather against the Greens in Dorset

14/4/2017 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Coulby Newham on Middlesbrough (Lab defence, resignation of sitting member) Result: Conservatives 501 (38% +12%), Labour 468 (35% -3%), Independent 318 (24% +1%), Green Party 32 (2%, no candidate at last election) Conservative GAIN from Labour with a majority of 33 (3%) on a swing of 7.5% from Lab to Con Piddle Valley on West Dorset (Con defence, resignation of sitting member) Result: Conservative 303 (61% -8%), Green Party 195 (39% +19%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 108 (22%)…

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The latest French Presidential betting has Marine Le Pen with an 87% chance of making it to the final two

14/4/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

But who will join her? With the French presidential election moving into the final two weeks I thought it might be useful to look at the betting by concentrating on who will make it to the final two. That runoff election takes places a fortnight later on the Sunday after British locals. There are lively betting markets on the first round of the election and I have taken the latest chances based on the Betfair Exchange for my chart above….

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Local By-Election Previews : Maundy Thursday 2017 (T -3 weeks until Locals 2017)

13/4/2017 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Coulby Newham on Middlesbrough (Lab defence, resignation of sitting member) Result of council at last election (2015): Labour 33, Independents 9, Conservatives 4 (Labour majority of 20) Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected Labour 1,464, 1,291, 1,079 (38%) Conservative 996 (26%) Independents 893, 762, 758 (23%) Liberal Democrat 524 (14%) EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 21,181 (34%) LEAVE 40,177 (66%) on a turnout of 65% Candidates duly nominated: Emma Alberti (Green), Mike Allen (Ind), Annalise…

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The nearer you are to Russia the greater you attach to the importance of NATO

13/4/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

This could be a growing issue in many countries Well done to YouGov for putting together this cross comparison of view of NATO in a range of different countries. This body which has remained intact since 1949 and has played a key part in many counties security since that time. But political considerations are changing and we cannot assume that things will continue as they are. No doubt the weakening of this alliance is a key objective for Mr. Putin…

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This week’s PB/Polling Matters Podcast: The LD fight back and where they go next + the latest Ashcroft poll

13/4/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast, Leo is joined by Lib Dem writer and campaign strategist Mark Pack to discuss the Lib Dem fightback and the new Polling Matters / Opinium survey on the party’s prospects. The Lib Dems seem to be recovering in the polls, but how high can they go, where should they look for new voters, should they change leader and can they win the Gorton by-election? Later in the show, Leo and Mark discuss the…

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The LDs go for the jugular against Corbyn in Manchester Gorton

12/4/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Brutal Lib Dem leaflet for Manchester Gorton by-election. pic.twitter.com/VUQq3zS23E — George Eaton (@georgeeaton) April 12, 2017 An attack also designed for Remainers Above is a brutal Lib Dem leaflet that is going out in Manchester Gorton where the by-election takes places on May 4th. The party which used to hold all but two of the council seats in the seat believes it is in with good chance of getting a good result and is throwing a lot at the campaign….

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