So Le Pen isn’t going to be another Trump As it has turned out the polling in the French presidential election has proved to be pretty accurate. Macron has, as I write, 23.9% of the first round votes with Le Pen on 21.4%. The Betfair exchange betting now splits 88% to Macron with to 12% Marine Le Pen. It is now very hard to envisage the circumstances that have anybody other than the young former investment banker as the next…
?? #Presidentielle2017 ? Estimation Ipsos / @SopraSteria_fr à 20h du classement des candidats lors de ce premier tour pic.twitter.com/o6T4qBMGSq — Ipsos France (@IpsosFrance) April 23, 2017 Looks like the French have lost that lovin’ Fillon But given that both François Fillon and Jean-Luc Mélenchon are fewer than 2 points behind Le Pen, and we’ve not had any votes counted yet, don’t start spending winnings yet or write off those losses. Though if this exit poll is accurate I expect Macron to win…
On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast Leo Barasi talked about the state of the parties and the race ahead with Conor Pope of Progress and political consultant Laurence Janta-Lipinksi. You can listen to the episode below or by clicking here. Despite using Easter to announce several policies, Labour is making little effort to pretend it knows what it would do with power. The party’s website still invites visitors to “help shape our next manifesto” and Corbyn semi-loyalist Dawn Butler suggested…
Head to head: Fillon-LePen Head to head: Melenchon-LePen Head to head: Macron-LePen Today the people of France are going to the polls in the first round of the Presidential Election. The polling stations close at 1900 BST and we should get the first exit polls shortly afterwards. If the exit polling is close then we might see some delay before any figures are published. Unlike the UK where there is one single exit poll in France several media outlets have…
Judging by the polls, the political mood, the intuition of most political watchers, and pretty much everyone in the country, sans the Corbynites, are expecting Mrs May’s Tories to win so comprehensively the only thing in doubt is which three figure number will be the size of the Tory majority, but today I’ll explain why that might be wrong, and why Mrs May could end up with just a modest double digit majority. But here are the reasons why I…
New ComRes poll for Sunday Mirror: HIGHEST TORY VOTE SHARE SINCE JAN 1991 Con 50(+4) Lab 25(-) LD 11(-) UKIP 7(-2) — Andrew Hawkins (@PigsAndPolling) April 22, 2017 ComRes for Sunday Mirror: T May has higher best PM rating than Corbyn, Farron & Nuttall combined — Andrew Hawkins (@PigsAndPolling) April 22, 2017 If this poll is as wrong in the other direction as the polls in 2015, 1992 and 1970 *put together*, Tories still have more seats than Labour…
New @OpiniumResearch Con 45 (+7) Lab 26 (-3) LD 11 (+4) UKIP 9 (-5) Changes since last week. FW 19/20 Aprilhttps://t.co/JDBaJ9a0K2 — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 22, 2017 Since Theresa May announced the general election, we’ve had three polls, with leads of 21%, 24%, and now 19% for the blues. The trend is not Labour’s friend. We might need to come up with a new adjective for just how rubbish Corbyn is. This poll presages an absolute shellacking for Labour. If…
Will that hold good when real voting starts tomorrow morning? France has some very tight laws on opinion polls including a complete ban on then being published on the day before an election. So the Wikipedia chart above represents all the polling that we will see until we get the exit polls tomorrow evening. The young independent, Emmanuel Macron, is still in the lead and has seen it move up just a touch in the final few days. Le Pen…