Love this pic.twitter.com/glp8dR7IIS — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 1, 2017 Latest Commons seats spreads from SpreadExCON 385-391LAB 159-165LD 24-27UKIP 0.25-1.25SNP 47-50 https://t.co/maYx85r2DK — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 1, 2017 Latest Commons seats spreads from @SportingIndexCON 386-392LAB 159-165LD 25-28UKIP 0.25-1.25GRN 1-2SNP 46-49 https://t.co/rSKroIPwt1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 1, 2017
Tonight on #c4news: CPS confirm 15 separate police forces have sent files on 30 Tory MPs and agents relating to #electionexpenses scandal. — Hayley Barlow (@Hayley_Barlow) April 26, 2017 Keeping within the limits could make a difference Becasuse so much of the effort to predict and analyse the next election is based on what happened in each seat at GE2016 we are in something of a quandary because of what we know now about the Conservative approach to constituency expense…
A new poll shows that UK adults overwhelmingly trust Theresa May rather than Jeremy Corbyn to negotiate Brexit by a margin of 51% to 13%. All else is secondary writes Keiran Pedley. On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast (see below) I spoke to Chris Hanretty from the University of East Anglia about events in France and the prospect of a Tory landslide in June. As part of the show, I also unveiled some new polling from our Polling Matters /…
Embed from Getty Images As the outcome of round 1 of France’s Presidential election became clear, the relief in the rest of Europe was palpable. The French were not going to follow the perfidious British and vulgar Americans and vote in as their leader a populist promising to epater the European bourgeoisie. Europe was safe. Populism would remain a miserable Anglo-Saxon affair and much good would it do them. Perhaps. But maybe there are rather more continuities between the US…
The Survation Kensington poll in the chart above has been commissioned by a body called the Stop Brexit Alliance (SBA) to rest the feasibility of putting forward candidates in London CON strongholds where neither Labour not the Lib Dens have any chance, My understanding is that other similar seats are being looked at and hopefully we will have the data within the next few days. The standard voting question in this poll found CON 46%; LAB 29%: LD 16.6%: UKIP…
O, I die, Horatio; The potent poison quite o’er-crows my spirit: I cannot live to hear the news from England; But I do prophesy the election lights On Fortinbras: he has my dying voice; So tell him, with the occurrents, more and less, Which have solicited. The rest is silence. – Hamlet Act V, Scene II William Hill have a market up on whether Jeremy Corbyn will announce his resignation before 11pm on June 9th. Whilst it might sound like…
But he still leads by wide margin The French election comes to its final round next weekend and the polls are showing a slight edge towards Le Pen though it is still very hard to see a pathway to victory for her. What is intriguing is this Wikipedia analysis of how second round votes are splitting by what people did on the first round. Clearly there are lot of voters yet to make up their minds and this is giving…
Embed from Getty Images Alastair Meeks who accurately predicted the SNP tsunami of 2015 looks at the best Scottish seat bets In 2010, not a single seat in Scotland changed hands. Electoral politics north of the border has got a bit more dynamic since then. 2017 will not be as wild as 2015 but the polls suggest a fair amount of movement. The SNP already have 56 out of the 59 seats that they compete in, so their room for…