Embed from Getty Images Alastair Meeks who accurately predicted the SNP tsunami of 2015 looks at the best Scottish seat bets In 2010, not a single seat in Scotland changed hands. Electoral politics north of the border has got a bit more dynamic since then. 2017 will not be as wild as 2015 but the polls suggest a fair amount of movement. The SNP already have 56 out of the 59 seats that they compete in, so their room for…
Lab & Lib Dem vote is a lot softer than the Con vote @IpsosMORI poll finds implying an even larger Con majority than we think might happen? pic.twitter.com/PDHa8BVsGg — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 28, 2017 The Labour and Lib Dem vote is substantially softer than the Tory vote In this month’s Ipsos MORI poll it found that the Labour and Lib Dem vote is softer than the Tory party vote, this came as a surprise to me. One of the reasons…
The second round polls since Sunday Wikipedia The betting’s barely moving
Graphic – The times And the LD could triple their Scottish seats The main General Election polling news overnight has been a YouGov/Times survey of Scotland which suggests that the Conservatives could start to win back some of the seats in Scotland that they held more than a quarter of a century ago. The Lib Dems could also stage a small recovery tripling the Scottish total to three seats. Labour, which at GE2010, won 41 of Scotland’s 59 seats, is…
Harry Hayfield looks forward 7 days So as there are no local by-elections this week, here’s the final part of my estimates for the local elections in Wales and Scotland. Wales As for the estimates for the English counties, I had a look at the by-elections in Wales since the referendum, tallied the changes on 2012 and noted if the council had voted to REMAIN or LEAVE and made the following observation. In REMAIN councils, the change was Lab -6%,…
SpreadEx CON 384-390 LAB 158-164 LD 25-28 UKIP 0.25-1.25 SNP 46-49 Sporting Index CON 384-390 LAB 162-168 LD 26-29 UKIP 0.25-1.25 SNP 47-50 As regular PBers will know my favourite form of election betting is that featured above – the Commons seats spreads where you buy and sell seats like shares. Two levels are quoted. The higher one is the buy price and the one is the sell one. This is a form of betting where the more you are…
How important will Brexit be on June 8th? The latest YouGov BREXIT tracker was published in the Times over-night and shows a move to people now saying that the referendum decision was wrong rather than right. This is a regular polling question that has been asked by YouGov in exactly the same manner since Theresa May became prime minister. Then, as the chart above shows, 4% more people thought Brexit was right than wrong. Now the “wrong” segment in leading…
On this week’s podcast Keiran returns and is joined by Chris Hanretty from the University of East Anglia. Keiran and Chris celebrate the excellent performance of French pollsters last weekend and discuss the implications of Macron and Le Pen making the second round. Is a Macron victory now inevitable? What happens next and would a British version of ‘En Marche’ be successful? Keiran and Chris also discuss the seeming inevitability of a Conservative landslide in June and what might…