New York Times graphic His victory was almost two to one In the immediate aftermath of the first round two weeks ago I wrote here that the final outcome was nearest thing to an absolute certainty you could have and I bet accordingly. There was no way I could see, during the final phase of the campaign that Le Pen could win given the sheer size of the opinion polls gap. The polls had been dead on for the first…
The powers of the French President France will shortly elect a new president, but what powers will Emmanuel Macron or Marine Le Pen have if they win? #Presidentielle2017 pic.twitter.com/W8EoSvQgMY — AFP News Agency (@AFP) May 7, 2017 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
Despite Labour voters support for a second referendum on EU membership, the party’s support for Brexit is probably the right policy writes Keiran Pedley. The Conservatives are vulnerable if Theresa May cannot negotiate a deal but not if Labour looks ‘pro-Brussels’. As June the 8th rapidly approaches, many have criticised the Labour Party’s approach to Brexit. With the Prime Minister solidly in favour of a so-called ‘hard Brexit’ and the Liberal Democrats the unapologetic party of Remain, Labour has seemed…
Embed from Getty Images “Tain’t What You Do (It’s The Way That You Do It) sang Ella. “That’s what gets results.” A lesson the EU and the British government might usefully tattoo on their respective foreheads as they embark on post-Article 50 negotiations. Or try to. Nine months on from the referendum and two months since Article 50 was formally triggered, both the EU and Britain are still shouting at each other in a way familiar to divorce lawyers…
https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/860412293145923584 Could Tim Farron losing his seat be the shock of June 8th? I found the above tweet fascinating, Jim Waterson of Buzzfeed analysed which seats the Tories are targeting by looking at the ad buys in local newspapers. The one that caught my attention was Westmorland and Lonsdale, the constituency of Tim Farron. The symbolism of Tim Farron, the arch remainer and and advocate of another referendum, losing his seat on June 8th would be yet another blow to…
New @ORB_Int poll for The Sunday Telegraph Con 46 (+4) Lab 31 (nc) LD 9 (-1) UKIP 8 (nc) https://t.co/zkP1tzQcEc — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 6, 2017 Westminster voting intention: CON: 46% (-1)LAB: 30% (-)LDEM: 9% (+1)UKIP: 7% (-)GRN: 2% (-1) (via @OpiniumResearch / 02 – 03 May) — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) May 6, 2017 Westminster voting intention: CON: 47% (-1)LAB: 28% (-1)LDEM: 11% (+1)UKIP: 6% (+1) (via YouGov) — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) May 6, 2017 By @ShippersUnbound in tomorrow's @thesundaytimes….
MARINE LE PEN might be 24% behind in the polls but she's attracting 90% of the bets on the eve of the French Election – @LadPolitics — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 6, 2017 Final French polls published before last night's legal deadline before poll ban came in had Macron increasing his lead pic.twitter.com/orhvOkaetv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 6, 2017 The polls close at 1900 BST tomorrow when should get the next polls. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
Embed from Getty Images Pedants are quick to point out that for Labour to be decimated at the next election, they would need to lose only one in ten seats, while current polling shows them doing far worse than this. So in the interests of accuracy, I record that on 8 June I expect to see Labour crushed, marmalised and eviscerated. With the Conservatives having established close to a two power standard in most of the polling, we can expect…