Mark Pack on the major event that could yet derail this election

Mark Pack on the major event that could yet derail this election

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  The Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) is due to make public before polling day its decision on whether to go ahead with prosecuting over thirty Conservatives. This scandal involves not just any old Conservatives, but numerous MPs, senior party officials and even one of Theresa May’s closest and most long-standing advisers. This is not a few members off in some obscure local party who get called “senior” in an effort to make things seem exciting. This is proper senior. So far, the media…

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Get ready for a big psephological debate on Friday on how much you can read in to the locals

Get ready for a big psephological debate on Friday on how much you can read in to the locals

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How much a general election pointer will the locals be? The timing of the 2017 General Election has created an almost unique situation. This is the first time in the modern era when a general election has been called before the May local elections and the campaign period covered those elections. Since 1992 all general elections have been held on the same day as the local elections scheduled for those years. The impact has been that the turnout in the…

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The spread markets continue to point to CON 100+ majority

The spread markets continue to point to CON 100+ majority

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Love this pic.twitter.com/glp8dR7IIS — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 1, 2017 Latest Commons seats spreads from SpreadExCON 385-391LAB 159-165LD 24-27UKIP 0.25-1.25SNP 47-50 https://t.co/maYx85r2DK — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 1, 2017 Latest Commons seats spreads from @SportingIndexCON 386-392LAB 159-165LD 25-28UKIP 0.25-1.25GRN 1-2SNP 46-49 https://t.co/rSKroIPwt1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 1, 2017

The CON GE2015 target seat over-spending issue throws into question the mathematics of GE2017

The CON GE2015 target seat over-spending issue throws into question the mathematics of GE2017

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Tonight on #c4news: CPS confirm 15 separate police forces have sent files on 30 Tory MPs and agents relating to #electionexpenses scandal. — Hayley Barlow (@Hayley_Barlow) April 26, 2017 Keeping within the limits could make a difference Becasuse so much of the effort to predict and analyse the next election is based on what happened in each seat at GE2016 we are in something of a quandary because of what we know now about the Conservative approach to constituency expense…

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Voters want May to negotiate Brexit and not Corbyn and that’s all you need to know

Voters want May to negotiate Brexit and not Corbyn and that’s all you need to know

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A new poll shows that UK adults overwhelmingly trust Theresa May rather than Jeremy Corbyn to negotiate Brexit by a margin of 51% to 13%. All else is secondary writes Keiran Pedley. On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast (see below) I spoke to Chris Hanretty from the University of East Anglia about events in France and the prospect of a Tory landslide in June. As part of the show, I also unveiled some new polling from our Polling Matters /…

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The death of populism?

The death of populism?

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Embed from Getty Images As the outcome of round 1 of France’s Presidential election became clear, the relief in the rest of Europe was palpable.  The French were not going to follow the perfidious British and vulgar Americans and vote in as their leader a populist promising to epater the European bourgeoisie.  Europe was safe.  Populism would remain a miserable Anglo-Saxon affair and much good would it do them. Perhaps.  But maybe there are rather more continuities between the US…

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New polling suggests that CON London strongholds could be vulnerable to Stop Brexit candidates

New polling suggests that CON London strongholds could be vulnerable to Stop Brexit candidates

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The Survation Kensington poll in the chart above has been commissioned by a body called the Stop Brexit Alliance (SBA) to rest the feasibility of putting forward candidates in London CON strongholds where neither Labour not the Lib Dens have any chance, My understanding is that other similar seats are being looked at and hopefully we will have the data within the next few days. The standard voting question in this poll found CON 46%; LAB 29%: LD 16.6%: UKIP…

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Corbyn to quit or not to quit on June 9th, that is the question

Corbyn to quit or not to quit on June 9th, that is the question

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O, I die, Horatio; The potent poison quite o’er-crows my spirit: I cannot live to hear the news from England; But I do prophesy the election lights On Fortinbras: he has my dying voice; So tell him, with the occurrents, more and less, Which have solicited. The rest is silence.  – Hamlet Act V, Scene II William Hill have a market up on whether Jeremy Corbyn will announce his resignation before 11pm on June 9th. Whilst it might sound like…

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