How the votes moved to UKIP and how they’ve moved away with CON taking more than they lost
The story of 2017 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
Branding the Tories totally around Theresa has made it easier for LAB>UKIP voters to move to the blues
Dealing with historic CON “nasty party” perceptions We are not hearing the name Lynton Crosby much at the moment but he is playing the central role in the massive resurgence of the Conservatives that we are currently seeing. He is very much a research-based campaigner and takes a lot of notice about the polls and detailed voter profiling that he is so good at. At GE2015 his masterstroke was to exploit the fears that an EdM LAB government would be…
Professor Steve Fisher – the political scientist who got it right yet again
So far Steve Fisher's prediction on Tuesday looking pretty good https://t.co/2ELo3ROjN7 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 5, 2017 My English local elections seats forecast from pollsCon +430Lab -315LD -30 https://t.co/zUExklIRzx — Steve Fisher (@StephenDFisher) May 2, 2017 On Tuesday afternoon professor Steve Fisher who runs the Elections etc website produced his predictions for the locals which were very different from what other academics and analysts were saying. His projected numbers particularly for the LDs ran very much against the narrative….
Huge CON gains, LAB collapse UKIP wipe out – the story of the night do far
Thanks to RobD’s great resource here part is featured above. We have a brilliant tracker of what’s happening. The virtual wipe out of UKIP and the switch of those voters has put the Tories in an extraordinarily powerful position as the numbers shows. This all augurs well for TMay’s party on June 8th. The LDs have put on votes but look set to end as seat losers. The super mayoralty results will mostly come during the day and it is…
For the latest numbers on what seems a bad night for LAB check out RobD’s great spreadsheet
Rob’s great resource is here and part of what it is showing is featured above. This is better than anything you’ll find elsewhere. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
Local By-Elections on Local Election Day 2017 (T- 35 days and counting until GE 2017)
Today, as well as the elections to the English counties, Scottish councils, Welsh councils (of which I am currently dozing in order to be bright eyed and bushy tailed at anything up to 4.00am tomorrow morning) and the new Metro Mayor elections (not forgetting Doncaster of course), there are 107 local by-elections up and down the country in those areas which do not have any local elections. Now clearly 107 is way too many for a single preview so here…
Tonight’s battle grounds – the seats that are being defended
There is a whole series of different sets of elections taking place today and the chart focuses on English council seats which were last fought in 2013. Mostly the seats being contested are in the old shire counties so this is not fertile territory for Labour in any circumstances period as can be seen. The Tories completely dominated last time these were fought. 2013 was the third year of the coalition waspretty bad year for the Lib Dems. It was…
We can learn a lot about TMay’s negotiating style from this chain of events when she was Home Secretary
2. Once upon a time Theresa was Home Secretary. One day she had to deal with a request from Jordan for Abu's deportation. — David Allen Green (@davidallengreen) May 4, 2017 3. She was not the first Home Secretary to have to deal with this request. But there was a problem. — David Allen Green (@davidallengreen) May 4, 2017 5. And if so, it was not lawfully open to the UK under ECHR to deport anybody if there was prospect…