CPS announces on Wednesday whether to prosecute Tories over election spending breaches https://t.co/JgwAtnTdZS — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 9, 2017 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
There is so much General Election polling in coming out at the moment but sometimes it is quite useful just focusing on one small number in a much smaller sampling area. Above is a screenshot of the dataset from the latest Welsh YouGov poll which covers the 40 seats at stake in the Principality on June 8th. My red arrow points to one – the proportion of UKIP voters from the last general election who now say they are switching…
But is Jez going to go quietly after the Tory landslide? There has been a trend on the Labour leadership betting markets in the last couple of days which has seen Yvette Cooper establish herself as the firm favourite to succeed Jeremy Corbyn. She’s had some fairly confident performances and was the one person who really shook TMay at PMQs before the Parliament was dissolved. I’m not rushing into back however although U believe she will be by a long…
On the previous thread Chris from Paris gave his views on who Macron is going to choose as his first Prime Minister. Betffair has just got a market up. These are Chris’s views with the numbers being the Betfair price when he posted. Pascal Lamy 10.0 : ok price, a bit low: Lamy has a great international profile but pretty unlikely PM as he has never been either a MP or a minister – Le Drian 7.2 : the price…
GE2017 seat spreads from @SportingIndex . CON 396-401LAB 152-158LD 16-19UKIP 0.1-1GRN 1-2SNP 44-47 https://t.co/rSKroIPwt1 … … … … — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 8, 2017 Latest Spreadex Commons seats spreadsCON 395-41LAB 152-158LD 16-19UKIP 0.1-1GRN 0.75-1.75SNP 44-47https://t.co/m9B2DFvQv3 … … … … — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 8, 2017 The biggest loser on the betting markets since the election was called have been the Lib Dems. The opening prices were at 26 to 29 seats following the widespread assumption that the party…
Embed from Getty Images Everyone seems to agree: Labour are in for a pummelling at the upcoming general election. The opinion polls, the local election results and the anonymous comments from politicians of all parties on the campaign trail all point in the same direction. Even the newspaper pundits, constantly looking for a new angle, are unanimously predicting a Conservative landslide. Few, however, have tried to put numbers on the eventual outcome. This fool is going to rush in. I’ve…
New York Times graphic His victory was almost two to one In the immediate aftermath of the first round two weeks ago I wrote here that the final outcome was nearest thing to an absolute certainty you could have and I bet accordingly. There was no way I could see, during the final phase of the campaign that Le Pen could win given the sheer size of the opinion polls gap. The polls had been dead on for the first…
The powers of the French President France will shortly elect a new president, but what powers will Emmanuel Macron or Marine Le Pen have if they win? #Presidentielle2017 pic.twitter.com/W8EoSvQgMY — AFP News Agency (@AFP) May 7, 2017 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet