Four weeks to go and two local by-elections – LAB & CON defences in seats where UKIP did well

Four weeks to go and two local by-elections – LAB & CON defences in seats where UKIP did well

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Fairstead on King’s Lynn and West Norfolk (Lab defence, death of sitting member) Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 50, Labour 10, Independents 2 (Conservative majority of 38) Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected Labour 753, 727 (39%) United Kingdom Independence Party 599 (31%) Conservatives 593, 469 (31%) EU Referendum Result: REMAIN 28,587 (34%) LEAVE 56,493 (66%) on a turnout of 75% Candidates duly nominated: Rob Colwell (Liberal Democrat), Gary Howman (Labour), Ronald Mortimer…

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As the election draws closer LAB leader Corbyn is seeing a boost in his “Best Prime Minister” ratings

As the election draws closer LAB leader Corbyn is seeing a boost in his “Best Prime Minister” ratings

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Now 28% behind TMay the closest this year Of all the ratings that are made of leaders the one I have least doubts about his who would make the best Prime Minister. Quite simply the incumbent generally gets a huge boost simply because they are in the post and the opposition leader isn’t. It might be recalled that ahead of Mrs Thatcher’s 1979 General Election victory she was trailing James Callaghan by more than 20% on this measure in the…

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The Tories aim to win a landslide by trying to persuade us that Corbyn might win

The Tories aim to win a landslide by trying to persuade us that Corbyn might win

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But if PM Corbyn was such a danger why call the election in the first place? One of the most weird features of this election campaign is that the Conservatives are doing everything they can to try to persuade us that Jeremy Corbyn really is in with a chance of becoming next prime minister. Above is some Conservative publicity material that was featured on BuzzFeed and seeks to make every argument that there is a real risk. It is almost…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Local election debrief, General Election forecasting & public opinion on a Tory landslide

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Local election debrief, General Election forecasting & public opinion on a Tory landslide

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Steve Fisher joins the discussion On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran is joined by Steve Fisher from Oxford University. Steve runs the elections website https://electionsetc.com/ and is part of the team that produces the General Election exit poll. Keiran and Steve discuss the fallout from last week’s local elections. Steve explains how his election forecast did and what the results tell us about the potential outcome of the General Election in June. Keiran and Steve also discuss how the opinion polls…

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Labour holding up better in London where there are fewer UKIP voters for CON to squeeze

Labour holding up better in London where there are fewer UKIP voters for CON to squeeze

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YouGov: LAB vote holding up in London poll. LDs up 6. (Changes on GE2015)LAB 42% -2CON 36% +2LD 14% +6UKIP 6%-2GRN 3% -2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 10, 2017 LDs hoping for gains in the capital There’s a new London poll from YouGov out in the Evening Standard which tells the story of GE2017 in a very different way from what we’d been getting used to. The big national voter movement, as has been widely observed, has been from…

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At 11am the Crown Prosecution Service announces what it is doing about the CON GE2015 expenses investigation

At 11am the Crown Prosecution Service announces what it is doing about the CON GE2015 expenses investigation

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If charges are being bought we need to be ultra careful not to make comments that could prejudice the case It was reported last month that the CPS was looking into cases involving about 30 individuals. This all follows the investigation by Michael Crick of Channel 4 News on election spending in several key marginals at GE2015. Given the proximity of the close of nominations for the June 8th election the CPS appears to be trying to create clarity ahead…

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