politicalbetting.com – Page 936 – The web's premier resource for political betting.

More worrying numbers for Team Theresa as doubts amongst punters rise

1/6/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

TMay’s YouGov “best PM” lead down 25 points in 2 months TMay's lead over Corbyn on YouGov "Best PM" tracker has dropped 25 points in past 2 months pic.twitter.com/olqsZ74eSp — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 1, 2017 On Betfair CON majority chances down from 96% to 80% The controversial YouGov model – today’s projections YouGov 2017 election model results (1 June)CON 42%, 285-353 seatsLAB 38%, 219-285 seatsFor full results visit: https://t.co/1eYpO4jRQq pic.twitter.com/qkTX5ITAMX — YouGov (@YouGov) June 1, 2017 Mike Smithson Follow…

Read More Read More

NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: That latest YouGov forecast, pollster wars & TMay’s lost momentum

31/5/2017 Editor Comments 0 Comment

On this week’s episode of the PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran is joined by Chris Curtis from YouGov and Adam Drummond of Opinium to discuss the latest polling and General Election campaign developments. Chris Curtis explains the background to this week’s controversial YouGov model seen in the Times that has suggested we might be facing a hung parliament. Curtis explains what is behind the model, its limitations and how we should read it. Later in the show, the panel discuss why…

Read More Read More

Theresa’s Tories drop to their lowest level yet on the Commons seats spread markets

31/5/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

And LAB buy level now above 200 seats There’s been a big shake-up in the betting following the publication by the Times of YouGov’s new election model that suggests that Team Theresa could be net losers of seats a week tomorrow and not have a majority. Latest CON seats spreads SportingIndex 365-371 Spreadex 365-371 Latest LAB spreads both SportingIndex 195-201 and Spreadex 196-202 Latest LD spreads both SportingIndex 12.5-14-5 and Spreadex 12-14.5 To put this into context. Just after the…

Read More Read More

What if this latest from YouGov proves to be correct?

31/5/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Alastair Meeks looks at the possibilities & the bets All the sensible people had decided. The Conservatives’ epic leads of the early part of the election campaign may have dissipated in part, but they remained set for a hefty overall majority. Then YouGov published their first seat-by-seat estimates, which to the consternation of many showed a hung Parliament. The reaction of far too many has been that this cannot possibly be right. Even before YouGov’s analysis came out, I explained…

Read More Read More

On the day ICM gave the Tories a 12% lead, YouGov analysis has the Tories losing their majority

30/5/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

The front page of The Times made me say a phrase that rhymes with 'clucking bell' pic.twitter.com/p6f9QtQfZc — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 30, 2017 Tonight: we reveal YouGov's first seat by seat projection of the campaign – suggests Tories fall 16 seats short of overall majority pic.twitter.com/8ouPRHTZ7m — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) May 30, 2017 Tonight's YouGov data, which will be updated daily between now and polling day, based on complex model and 7,000 sample over 7 days pic.twitter.com/MzpXXifBFX — Sam…

Read More Read More

Youth and experience. Turnout among 18-24 year olds and past non-voters

30/5/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

In the summer of 1969, I was not yet two years old. The world watched in awe as Apollo 11 landed on the moon. My parents sat me in front of the television set so that I could say in years to come that I had seen it. Of course, I don’t remember it at all. I try to keep this piece of family nostalgia in mind when thinking about how the world looks to younger voters. The youngest…

Read More Read More

Theresa May’s firewall – the oldies who appear to be staying loyal

30/5/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

Author & ex-political journalist, Robert Harris, suggests TMay might be making Heath’s 1974 mistake

30/5/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

May reminiscent of Heath in 74. Called an opportunistic election when far ahead in polls & then campaign unravelled under scrutiny — Robert Harris (@Robert___Harris) May 29, 2017 During the big C4/Sky News event last night the best-selling author and former political journalist, Robert Harris, posted the above tweet pointing to the similarities between TMay going to the country three years early and Heath’s calling of the February 1974 election with a possible year and a half still to go….

Read More Read More