politicalbetting.com – Page 932 – The web's premier resource for political betting.

From loser to leader – and beyond

10/6/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

After Jeremy Corbyn’s stunning general election vindication, he must now show real leadership by reaching out to all parts of the Labour party, argues Joff Wild So, Jeremy Corbyn will be able to take a holiday in August. After spending the last two summers fighting Labour leadership elections, this year he can head off for a fortnight at a socialist poetry workshop in the sun safe in the knowledge that he stands triumphant and unassailable as leader of the party….

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Ideas, events and people. What the Conservatives need to do next

10/6/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Theresa May is under enormous pressure following her failure to win an overall majority. Straw-laden pitchforks are being doused with petrol, the pearl-handled revolver is being polished. She cannot continue, it is being said. She’s lost all her authority, anonymous briefings growl. The question that exercises many is whether she should go at once or later. Different names are being touted as her replacement (one suspects by the would-be replacements). The Conservatives are repeating their mistakes from the election campaign. …

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Those who rubbished Survation and the YouGov model look pretty stupid now

10/6/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Final polling table. Actual GB shares CON 43.5%LAB 41%LD 7.6%SNP 3.1%UKIP 1.9%GRN 1.7% pic.twitter.com/4RZp28vEa2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 10, 2017 The finalisation of the count in Kensington means that we now can compute the final actual voting share percentages for GE17 the ones against which the pollsters should be judged. These are for GB only excluding Northern Ireland. What is very striking is how understated the Labour share was with some huge variations in the wrong direction. Those pollsters…

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Why TMay must stay – for now

10/6/2017 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

There is much to be getting on with, including leadership election reform A minority government propped up on a vote-by-vote basis by a minor party where the government, even including the ally, only has a majority of about 13 (once Sinn Fein are excluded), is about as strong and stable as a three-legged gazelle roller-skating across ice. In normal circumstances, not only would this not be a parliament likely to go the distance, it would do well to reach a…

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How the overall majority odds moved on a dramatic night of political betting

9/6/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Above the is the chart from Betdata.io of the final 12 hours of betting on an overall majority. Here we see the immediate impact of the exit poll followed by sentiment turning for a while to the Tories doing it only for the harsh reality of the result to set in. This is the third general election in succession where ahead of the exit poll punters had it wrong. Before GE2010 the view was the the Tories would win a…

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Alastair Meeks reflects on last night’s events

9/6/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Thursday night’s drama was hugely enjoyable. There’s nothing I enjoy more than a series of unfolding surprises. It’s led us to a whole new political landscape, with a whole new range of political problems to chew over. But, to borrow a phrase that has been heard a lot this week, enough is enough. Much though it is a blow to the ego, I have to admit that while I know a lot of information about politics I clearly do not…

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Welcome to the new politics where the young ones actually turn out to vote

9/6/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

My Tweet at 0924 yesterday Based on 30 minutes at polling station in marginal Bedford more young people than normal coming out to vote — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 8, 2017 NOTICE to young voters: Voting in greater numbers than that in the ICM and ComRes turnout models could mess up their bids to be top pollster — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 8, 2017 I think that I can claim to to have been amongst the first on election day…

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With such a focus on Corbyn’s past with Sinn Féin it is ironic we could have an effective Tory majority thanks to Sinn Féin abstentionism

9/6/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Close to a majority but no cigar pic.twitter.com/tsftilkvLw — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 9, 2017 https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/873007885449662464 https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/873023971351961601 Amber Rudd holds on by 346 votes, she could be PM within hours pic.twitter.com/XZyAh8m6si — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 9, 2017 The Tories were hoping for 1931, instead they got 1923 — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 9, 2017 This has to be the worst political campaign in UK history, the Tory targeting in this campaign has been as accurate as an American war film. —…

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