June 8th 2017 is a day that the election predictor/modellers will want to forget

June 8th 2017 is a day that the election predictor/modellers will want to forget

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Wikipedia It is little comfort to the election predictors/modellers that Wikipedia has now decided to record for posterity how successful they were in predicting the party seat outcome of GE17. The chart is above. As can be seen only the YouGov model based on 50k+ of its own interviews came out of this well. Throughout the campaign the forecaster/modellers aimed to produce projections of the party seat totals which, are course, based on the outcome of 650 separate first past…

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Don’t laugh at us, Argentina

Don’t laugh at us, Argentina

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The referendum has not harmed growth, investment or confidence. The *possibility* of a Corbyn Government could be a different matter. — Daniel Hannan (@DanielJHannan) June 13, 2017 A lot can happen in a hundred years or so.  On the eve of the First World War, the United Kingdom was a United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland, but it didn’t look very united at all.  The nation was on the point of civil war, with the Conservatives openly allied with…

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It’s time for Labour to push back against Tory plastic patriotism

It’s time for Labour to push back against Tory plastic patriotism

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Labour has allowed the Conservative party to question its patriotism and take sole ownership of the Union Jack. That is a mistake, says Joff Wild – particularly in light of what has happened over recent years Theresa May, we are told, has bought herself sometime after appearing in front of the 1922 Committee and taking responsibility for the general election campaign and the result it delivered. “I got us into this mess,” she is reported to have told her backbench…

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Being wrong about about Jeremy and being right about Jeremy

Being wrong about about Jeremy and being right about Jeremy

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Don Brind reflects on a better than expected result “Can I have one of those”, said a young woman as I was walking along the road with a bundle of leaflets in my south London constituency. She was on her way home to collect her boyfriend before going to vote. She was having trouble deciding how to vote. “Is there anything in particular that is worrying you”, I asked. “I’m worried about terrorist attacks. I’m not sure that Labour can…

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It wasn’t just young people voting that cost TMay her majority but failing to retain the levels of OAP support

It wasn’t just young people voting that cost TMay her majority but failing to retain the levels of OAP support

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Detailed breakdown from Lord’s Ashcroft’s 13k “exit” poll How the Tories lost their “oldie” firewall Thanks to David Cowling for producing the above table from Lord Ashcroft’s 13k sample on the survey. It provides an excellent resource which will be referred to time and time again. The picture presented has become well-known since the election – the huge vote for Labour amongst the younger generations those in the 18-24 and 24-34 groups. What I find interesting is the the 65+…

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A look at the DUP and what supporting the government would mean

A look at the DUP and what supporting the government would mean

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The election in Northern Ireland was an enormously dispiriting one for me. As a Unionist who is a former liberal Tory I threw my hat in with the UUP a number of years ago, before joining them last year. When I first started working with them the new Stormont Opposition (UUP/SDLP) was box fresh and ready to try and land blows on the DUP/SF Executive. It was difficult to get a foothold in a place that isn’t really used to…

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Prime Minister Theresa May Episode II

Prime Minister Theresa May Episode II

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All learning, it is said, is a form of humiliation.  There is no doubt that Theresa May has been humiliated by the events of the last few days.  She has lost her majority, she has lost her authority and she may yet lose her job.  Yet for now she remains in harness and she has the opportunity to learn from what has happened. Just a few weeks ago, the Prime Minister stood confidently above all that she surveyed.  Her popularity…

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