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The Queen’s Speech timing: the product of what Lynton would call the “coalition of chaos”

15/6/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

It is extraordinary to reflect that just a week ago this morning all looked set for a certain CON victory with the betting being on a majority of about 80 seats. Everything seemed set for TMay win a workable Commons majority and a victory in her own right. The polls were almost united in their view and the only clouds on the horizon were the then discredited YouGov model and Survation’s numbers which were dismissed as an outlier. It appeared…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: GE17 debrief. Breaking down the YouGov model & focus on Northern Ireland

14/6/2017 Editor Comments 0 Comment

This week’s podcast is split into two parts. In part one, Keiran chats with Ben Lauderdale from the LSE. Ben was behind the infamous YouGov model which turned out to be so successful. He explains how the model works, what it tells us about the campaign and British politics more generally and where the polling industry goes from here. In part two, Keiran is joined by Mick Fealty of Slugger O’Toole to discuss what the DUP might want from the…

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Farron quits as LD leader

14/6/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Tim Farron 'to quit as leader of the Liberal Democrats' https://t.co/URHrPlV5no pic.twitter.com/SBpcjKehDW — Daily Mirror (@DailyMirror) June 14, 2017 My guess is that Jo Swinson will succeed him Ladbrokes: Jo Swinson favourite to replace Farron as Lib Dem leader pic.twitter.com/H4kpPScmlN — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) June 14, 2017 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

Playing it long. When will this Parliament end?

14/6/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

This Parliament likely to go full 5 year distance. Only 2 by elections in Tory seats in 2010-2015 Parliament, excluding UKIP defectors. 1/2 — Nick Macpherson (@nickmacpherson2) June 12, 2017 Tories have no incentive to overturn Fixed Term Parliament Act. 2/2 — Nick Macpherson (@nickmacpherson2) June 12, 2017 A look at when the next election might take place Clearly we haven’t had enough elections recently. In the last three years we’ve been treated to the Scottish independence referendum, the May…

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June 8th 2017 is a day that the election predictor/modellers will want to forget

14/6/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Wikipedia It is little comfort to the election predictors/modellers that Wikipedia has now decided to record for posterity how successful they were in predicting the party seat outcome of GE17. The chart is above. As can be seen only the YouGov model based on 50k+ of its own interviews came out of this well. Throughout the campaign the forecaster/modellers aimed to produce projections of the party seat totals which, are course, based on the outcome of 650 separate first past…

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Don’t laugh at us, Argentina

13/6/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

The referendum has not harmed growth, investment or confidence. The *possibility* of a Corbyn Government could be a different matter. — Daniel Hannan (@DanielJHannan) June 13, 2017 A lot can happen in a hundred years or so. On the eve of the First World War, the United Kingdom was a United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland, but it didn’t look very united at all. The nation was on the point of civil war, with the Conservatives openly allied with…

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It’s time for Labour to push back against Tory plastic patriotism

13/6/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Labour has allowed the Conservative party to question its patriotism and take sole ownership of the Union Jack. That is a mistake, says Joff Wild – particularly in light of what has happened over recent years Theresa May, we are told, has bought herself sometime after appearing in front of the 1922 Committee and taking responsibility for the general election campaign and the result it delivered. “I got us into this mess,” she is reported to have told her backbench…

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Being wrong about about Jeremy and being right about Jeremy

13/6/2017 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Don Brind reflects on a better than expected result “Can I have one of those”, said a young woman as I was walking along the road with a bundle of leaflets in my south London constituency. She was on her way home to collect her boyfriend before going to vote. She was having trouble deciding how to vote. “Is there anything in particular that is worrying you”, I asked. “I’m worried about terrorist attacks. I’m not sure that Labour can…

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