If you think that CON will struggle to agree a DUP supply/confidence deal there’s a very interesting bet

If you think that CON will struggle to agree a DUP supply/confidence deal there’s a very interesting bet

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How Betfair define “CON minority” opens this up As far as I can see there is just one GE2016 betting market still open – that on what will be the form of the new government. CON majority was clearly the huge favourite until 10pm on June 8th and since then CON minority has become the tight odds-on favourite. With bets like this it is vital that punters read the precise terms of the market before investing their cash. These are…

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Events are boxing May in while Corbyn sits pretty

Events are boxing May in while Corbyn sits pretty

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The structural weaknesses of May’s government will leave its impression on the public Only a fool would try to predict how this parliament will play out after all the extraordinary political upheavals and upsets this decade so far. So here goes. The central fact in British politics right now is that Jeremy Corbyn is unchallengeable. He will serve through to the next election (and perhaps beyond), unless he chooses to stand aside before it, of his own volition. He and…

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The first local by election since GE17 – the results

The first local by election since GE17 – the results

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First of all, an explanation of this new method. During the general election campaign I became aware that a lot of people were doing profiles of the wards up for local by-elections and having a look through them all I came to the conclusions that the profiles offered by Andrew Teale were far and away the best, therefore in consultation with Mike, I said that I would list the results of the local by-elections after the results had been published…

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Alastair Meeks makes his first next general election bet: LAB to win most seats

Alastair Meeks makes his first next general election bet: LAB to win most seats

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The crimson tide is coming in The Conservatives are in a wretched state. Everything Theresa May has touched recently has turned to ashes. Jeremy Corbyn in his response to the Queen’s Speech stated that the government has no majority, no mandate and no plan. Jeremy Corbyn is right. Theresa May remains in office for now, a case study in faute de mieux. Everyone, including I suspect Theresa May herself, seems to recognise that the Age of May is concluded. But…

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It is the trend in TMay’s YouGov “best PM” ratings that should really worry the Tories

It is the trend in TMay’s YouGov “best PM” ratings that should really worry the Tories

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The miniscule lead with YouGov that Corbyn now enjoys as “best PM” is not what should concern her party but the trend which is illustrated in my chart above. It all peaked in the first polling after she made the brave, and in retrospect disastrous, decision in April to go for a general election three years ahead of schedule. Then she was a walloping 39% ahead. As can be seen this has moved steadily downwards ever since and now she…

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New YouGov poll has Corbyn ahead of TMay as “best PM”

New YouGov poll has Corbyn ahead of TMay as “best PM”

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Numbers like this will add to the pressure on the PM Just two weeks to the minute after we saw the exit poll there’s some sensational new polling from YouGov for the Times. The figures are above. TMay is now trailing Corbyn as best PM. This could provide the ammunition for those in the Tory party who are said to have been pressing for a new leader following TMay’s GE2017 campaign. The Tories don’t like losers is how she is…

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Norman Lamb says he not standing in LD leadership race

Norman Lamb says he not standing in LD leadership race

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The Guardian article in which Norman Lamb says he's not standing https://t.co/vlGG9mNsic pic.twitter.com/SlzqZDUr6W — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 22, 2017 So now it looks like Cable versus Davey The busiest UK political betting market at the moment is on the LD leadership and within the last few minutes the Guardian has published the piece linked to above by the ex-health minister, Norman Lamb. This has come as a shock because Lamb did very well against Farron last time and the…

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Damian Green – my 70/1 longshot to be next CON leader

Damian Green – my 70/1 longshot to be next CON leader

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One of TMay’s appointments that didn’t get much attention in the post GE2017 reshuffle was that of Damian Green as First Secretary of State. He’s effectively her deputy and looks set to be the safe pair of hands that gets put up to be interviewed when things look tricky. This is likely to happen a lot given the lack of a parliamentary majority. He’s been close friend of TMay since they were at Oxford together in the 1970s and they…

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