How Betfair define “CON minority” opens this up
As far as I can see there is just one GE2016 betting market still open – that on what will be the form of the new government. CON majority was clearly the huge favourite until 10pm on June 8th and since then CON minority has become the tight odds-on favourite.
With bets like this it is vital that punters read the precise terms of the market before investing their cash. These are Betfair’s terms of this particular bet:
“This market will be settled on the formation of the first ministry (government) after the next UK general election. If a government is not formed and second general election is called, then this market will be made void. The Speaker will not be classified as belonging to any particular party, and will therefore not be counted in any individual party’s seat totals.
A party requires 326 Seats in order to gain a majority. A Coalition Government is one which has members from at least two parties attending Cabinet meetings and are said to “have a seat at Cabinet”. A minority Government would see all the Cabinet posts filled by one party, but supply and confidence would be enjoyed by that party by one or more other parties in Parliament in order to pass votes and budgets etc.“
My reading of this is that what’s described a CON minority government requires that another party or parties commit to providing BOTH supply AND confidence.
Currently we do not know the state of the CON-DUP discussions and whether this is a goer or not but I’d argue that DUP MPs voting simply for the Queen’s Speech won’t be enough to meet the rules of this £3.5m market. There needs to be the agreement to ongoing support to back budgets.
If that is lacking then, I’d suggest, the non-specific “other” option in the market would be the winner
Now here’s where this could get difficult. There are a lot of punters who have backed a CON minority who could lose out if my interpretation of the rules is correct and there will be an almighty row. Betfair, as an exchange, stands in the middle and might might decide to interpret their own market rules to favour them.
It is possible thar the market is simply voided and we all get our stake money back.
Still I’ve had a few pounds on “other” at longer than 60/1.