One and a half nations, how a longstanding trend has for now been checked

One and a half nations, how a longstanding trend has for now been checked

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Picture: The current political map of the UK (via the BBC) Britain is a geological seesaw.  After the last ice age retreated, the release of the weight of the ice has resulted in the bedrock on the northern half of the island rebounding, forcing the southern half of the island as a consequence to sink. It also has a longstanding political north-south seesaw.  The timescales are not quite as long term as the geological seesaw but they have proved enduring…

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Tonight’s council by-elections

Tonight’s council by-elections

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Four council by-elections today: two Labour defences, one Conservative and one Lib Dem. @AndrewTeale's previews: https://t.co/sB47GgLt27 pic.twitter.com/oJECfONqkD — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) June 29, 2017 TSE

Turns out the Queen’s Speech has caused more problems for Jeremy Corbyn than Theresa May

Turns out the Queen’s Speech has caused more problems for Jeremy Corbyn than Theresa May

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Labour sources now say three frontbenchers sacked for defying whip – Ruth Cadbury, Catherine West and Andy Slaughter — Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) June 29, 2017 Daniel Zeichner resigned before the vote – four holes on Labour front bench on what should have been bad day for Tories — Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) June 29, 2017 Senior Labour figure, not Corbynite, says 'disappointed' Umuna put down amendment cos politically 'unecessary' to force labour split today — Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) June 29, 2017…

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It would appear some Tory MPs are determined to see a British En Marche happen

It would appear some Tory MPs are determined to see a British En Marche happen

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EXC: Dozens of Tory MPs have emailed Andrea Leadsom urging her to run for leader again https://t.co/X8iKsfggKh — Adam Payne (@adampayne26) June 29, 2017 Why else would they back Leadsom? It is very reminiscent of Labour MPs backing Michael Foot just before defecting to the SDP so their old party was saddled with an unappealing leader. Business Insider report today that Dozens of Conservative MPs have urged Andrea Leadsom to run for the party leadership since Theresa May’s failure to…

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GE17 saw the emergence of a new type of “shy Tory” – those opposed to Corbyn but didn’t want a big CON win

GE17 saw the emergence of a new type of “shy Tory” – those opposed to Corbyn but didn’t want a big CON win

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One of the features of living in a super LAB-CON marginal less than an hour from London that regularly changes hands is that you get a lot of attention at general elections. Corbyn’s first big outside visit after the election was called in April was to Bedford which was a regular port of call by David Cameron and earlier LAB leaders at GE10 and GE15. So what was striking about TMay’s GE17 campaign is that it was almost invisible here…

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David Davis continues to be the favourite to succeed TMay as CON leader

David Davis continues to be the favourite to succeed TMay as CON leader

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The big question is whether there’ll be a contest or will TMay hang on So TMay got her Queen’s Speech through the Commons with a majority of 14 thanks to the DUP and that probably reduces the immediate pressure on the PM. But without a majority it looks set to be an interesting time ahead. Unlike the CON-LD coalition the DUP obligation to vote with the Tories is limited to very specific issues and the chances are that there’ll be…

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As the DUP prepare to back CON on the Queen’s speech here’s the implied GE17 result under new boundaries

As the DUP prepare to back CON on the Queen’s speech here’s the implied GE17 result under new boundaries

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Electoral Calculus Will Team Arlene vote to make them Northern Ireland’s 2nd party One of the issues likely to come up next year is the boundary review and the reduction of Commons seats from 650 to 600 MPs. Martibn Baxter of the Electoral Calculus has produced the above projection of the implied GE17 based on the latest proposals. I thought it timely to publish this given that the DUP will be voting with the Tories this evening ensuring the successful…

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It was the Question Time special exactly a week before polling day that sealed Theresa’s fate

It was the Question Time special exactly a week before polling day that sealed Theresa’s fate

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Reappraising the polling that got rubbished by the so called experts Last night I watched again the Question Time leaders’ special with Corbyn and TMay from the University of York that took place on June 1st exactly a week before the election. On the night itself the PMs performance was well received particularly by right wing commentators. The only polling on this event, carried by Survation on the Saturday, had TMay doing badly and Corbyn doing well. The survey ,…

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