Hung Parliaments are becoming the norm and we have to get used to it

Hung Parliaments are becoming the norm and we have to get used to it

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Inevitably it means governments that are weak and limited The British political system has a reputation for producing strong governments. It is often seen as one of its virtues. For a long time, it was true. From December 1918, the first election in which women could vote, until February 1974, a single party had a majority in the House of Commons for all bar 3 years 3 months of that period. Times have moved on, though many seem not to…

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Concern about immigration drops sharply although nearly 3 times as many CON voters raised it than LAB ones

Concern about immigration drops sharply although nearly 3 times as many CON voters raised it than LAB ones

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NHS remains top issue facing country according to Aug @IpsosMORI Issues Index which uniquely does not prompt responses pic.twitter.com/a4uWqWYFWh — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 22, 2017 Concern about immigration continue to slide according to latest @IpsosMORI Issues Index pic.twitter.com/keGIuq6XS4 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 22, 2017 From latest @IpsosMORI issues index – concern split by party support. Notice big CON-LAB gap on immigration pic.twitter.com/U13eUR2VxD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 22, 2017 In a month which has seen almost no polls…

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The “Will Trump survive full term betting” edges back to him making it

The “Will Trump survive full term betting” edges back to him making it

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I love today’s New York Daily News front page that I thought it would be a good peg to look at what are by far the biggest current political betting markets – will Trump survive a full term and what year will he leave the White House. These tend to fluctuate sharply and in the past couple of days the money has moved back a notch to Trump’s survival. In the aftermath of the white supremacist matches and Trump’s initial…

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Theresa’s Tories still being hit by the GE2017 branding gamble

Theresa’s Tories still being hit by the GE2017 branding gamble

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No post election poll has matched the CON election share which itself was seen as a disappointment It was noticing the photograph above of the Conservative battle bus at the general election that reminded me what a huge gamble the blue team made at the last election by putting everything on Theresa May. Notice that on the bus the words Conservative or Tory don’t appear. The election was going to be all about Theresa but as it turned out by…

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New polling finds that more than a third of Leave voters believed that £350m a week would be coming to the NHS

New polling finds that more than a third of Leave voters believed that £350m a week would be coming to the NHS

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And one in five of all leave voters are still expecting the extra £350m a week for the NHS In its August poll Opinium, which was one of the most accurate at the EU referendum, asked about whether at the time voters had believed the Leave Campaign on the £350m a week coming back to the NHS. There were the possible repsones: A ” I believed this pledge at the time and think that the £350 million contribution will be…

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New leader ratings in 3 state key to Trump’s 2016 victory have him with big favourability deficits

New leader ratings in 3 state key to Trump’s 2016 victory have him with big favourability deficits

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Those of us who stayed up all night for the White House election last November will recall the huge focus on Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan – states won by Obama in 2012 which went to the Republican last year. These were won by the tightest of margins down to 1.23% in Wisconsin, 0.64% in Pennsylvania and 0.23% in Michigan and were central to Trump’s shock victory. Now the latest Mairist/NBC News polling in these three states finds that Trump has…

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What a small pensions policy problem says about the current state of the SNP

What a small pensions policy problem says about the current state of the SNP

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Getting beyond rhetoric and identity politics These are unsettling times for Scottish nationalists. Just over a year ago, in the wake of the EU referendum, support in Remain-voting Scotland for independence was spiking. With the British government scrambling to form a coherent line on Brexit, the Scottish government hoped to turn the crisis into an opportunity by forcing the pace for a further independence referendum It hasn’t worked out that way at all. On the one hand, the Conservatives have…

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The good news for TMay’s successor is that her party’s due to exceed expectations next time

The good news for TMay’s successor is that her party’s due to exceed expectations next time

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The pattern appears to be clear One of the great things about monitoring election betting is that it gives you a good indication of what expectations were at a particular time and these can be interesting to look back at. The above is taken from what the spread betting seat levels were immediately before the five general elections since the millennium. As is shown in the chart the Tories seem to alternate between exceeding expectations or falling short of them….

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