Those of us who stayed up all night for the White House election last November will recall the huge focus on Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan – states won by Obama in 2012 which went to the Republican last year.
These were won by the tightest of margins down to 1.23% in Wisconsin, 0.64% in Pennsylvania and 0.23% in Michigan and were central to Trump’s shock victory.
Now the latest Mairist/NBC News polling in these three states finds that Trump has a huge net ratings deficit. Given the well recorded linkage between favourability rating polls and electoral outcomes this does not look good for Trump if he is considering going for a second term.
They also send a sharp message out to his party that he could be en electoral liability which could impact on other elections. If he is to go early then senior Republican figures have to be the ones to pull the trigger.
In the betting Trump’s is now odds-on not to complete a full first term. Latest price have that at 55%.