I love today’s New York Daily News front page that I thought it would be a good peg to look at what are by far the biggest current political betting markets – will Trump survive a full term and what year will he leave the White House.
These tend to fluctuate sharply and in the past couple of days the money has moved back a notch to Trump’s survival.
In the aftermath of the white supremacist matches and Trump’s initial controversial comments the Betfair chances of him going the full term edged to a 44% chance. That’s now moved back to 47%.
As for the year of his exit 2020 and beyond has now become a stronger favorite following the bounce back. 2017 is now a 9% chance, 2018 27%, 2019 17% with 2020 and beyond 47%.
This is not a market I’ve gambled on. My feeling at the moment is that he will survive but that he’ll struggle to win a second term. I don’t like locking up cash on longer term bets unless the odds are far longer than what we have here. Also I think the betting in the UK is very much driven by the anti Trump sentiment – this is very much a heart over head market.
If you think he will go early and want to bet then now might be a good time.