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The more a challenge to May’s leadership looks likely the less the chances of Corbyn becoming next PM

7/10/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

TMay needs to remain until next election if the LAB leader is to become next PM For some time now the Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, has been the favourite in the betting markets on who will succeed Theresa May as prime minister. The trend is featured in the chart above and I think that punters have got this totally wrong. The most likely situation in which Mr Corbyn becomes the next occupant of number 10 Downing Street is if Labour…

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Safe for now – but for how long?

7/10/2017 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

A good whipping operation can delay but not prevent the inevitable Napoleon famously demanded that his generals be lucky. It’s a wonderful attribute to have but the emperor really should have been more specific. What’s important is being lucky at the right time. On that score, Theresa May has fallen short and it will cost her her premiership. That’s not to say she’ll lose it today or tomorrow, or even this year. An effective pre-emptive strike against Grant Shapps ensured…

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Local By-Election Review : October 5th 2017

6/10/2017 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Mash Barn on Adur (UKIP defence) Result: Labour 490 (49% +25% on last time), Conservative 384 (39% +17% on last time), Liberal Democrat 89 (9% -14% on last time), Green Party 31 (3%, no candidate last time) (No UKIP candidate this time -41%) Labour GAIN from UKIP with a majority of 106 (10%) on a swing of 4% from Conservative to Labour Borehamwood, Kenilworth on Hertsmere (Con defence) Result: Labour 383 (38% -9% on last time), Conservative 341 (34% -19%…

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A European Strategy?

6/10/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

It was Napoleon who famously described the English as “a nation of shopkeepers”, not meant as a compliment, one imagines. Still, a bit rich coming from someone who sold Louisiana to the US to enrich his Treasury and help create a rival to England. The English may have paid others to do their fighting for them, usually against the French, but they have yet to sell bits of their country off. (The easily offended should look away now: dare I…

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Ex-Tory chairman Shapps “leading the rebels working to oust TMay”

6/10/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Former CON chairman under Cameron, Grant Shapps says that TMay should quit and new leader be electedhttps://t.co/cDyDE3iTGW pic.twitter.com/kQoiVapsna — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 6, 2017 Meanwhile YouGov finds the country divided over TMay staying YouGov Times poll taken since TMay's conference speech finds 39% saying she should stay and 38% saying she should go — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 6, 2017 So the battle for the future of the Conservative Party is now on with senior figures ready to go…

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A move against TMay needs to happen in next few days if a successor is in place by Christmas

5/10/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The only question being asked that matters in British – nay European – politics tonight: does Mrs May survive? — Andrew Neil (@afneil) October 4, 2017 Lots of talk going on in Tory circles tonight over whether TMay should continue in post or whether she should be replaced. The first senior figure to go on the record was the former cabinet minister under Cameron, Ed Vaizey. He said:- “..“I think there will be quite a few people who will now…

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September 2017 and Third Quarter Local By-Election Summary

5/10/2017 Editor Comments 0 Comment

September 2017 Monthly Summary Labour 18,824 votes (36.73% +8.66% on last time) winning 13 seats (+2 seats on last time) Conservatives 14,074 votes (27.46% -4.34% on last time) winning 10 seats (-7 seats on last time) Liberal Democrats 5,041 votes (9.84% +1.53% on last time) winning 3 seats (+1 seat on last time) Green Party 4,420 votes (8.62% +0.31% on last time) winning 2 seats (+2 seats on last time) Scottish National Party 3,345 votes (6.53% +3.23% on last time)…

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Not quite the Thursday newspaper headlines that Team TMay had planned

5/10/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Brutal. pic.twitter.com/wh9C6lVb2C — Adam Bienkov (@AdamBienkov) October 4, 2017 This is now all about her survival Once the prime minister had decided to try to battle on during the weekend after the election the speech at the end of the Conservative conference four months on was always going to be the biggest challenge. Alas events conspired to make it something of a disaster as the headlines in today’s papers reflect. The question now is whether she is going to continue…

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