Corbyn was far less a driver of the GE2017 LAB vote than many of his supporters maintain

Corbyn was far less a driver of the GE2017 LAB vote than many of his supporters maintain

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Just 13% named him as their main reason for voting LAB In the aftermath of the June 8th general election so much was happening politically that not much attention was paid to the above YouGov polling carried out shortly afterwards. For me the interesting thing was how, in relative terms. Corbyn does not appear to be key factor which has been very much the narrative since. Just 13% named him as their main reason. As can be seen from the…

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Just two months left for Corbyn to achieve his Glastonbury boast – becoming PM by Christmas

Just two months left for Corbyn to achieve his Glastonbury boast – becoming PM by Christmas

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If all the polls had been looked like Survation & the YouGov model there’d have been fewer JC accolades Just on four months ago, after the LAB leader’s extraordinary reception at Glastonbury, the festival chief, Michael Eavis, reported that Corbyn had told him that he’d be PM within six months and that he would scrap Britain’s Trident nuclear defence system as soon as he could. The following day the LAB PR machine went into action to seek to play down…

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If you fancy a 1% and an 8% return in a little over 2 months these might be the bets for you

If you fancy a 1% and an 8% return in a little over 2 months these might be the bets for you

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Time is running out for Mrs May to be removed this year, the same applies to a second referendum this year, ergo you should bet accordingly. William Hill have a range of markets up and to be honest most of them seem very unappealing, but if I had to choose from this market, I’d go for the 1/100 on there being no 2nd EU In/Out referendum in 2017 and the 1/12 on Theresa May still being PM on the 1st…

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Betting on the next Tory Party Chairman (or Chairwoman)

Betting on the next Tory Party Chairman (or Chairwoman)

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Mrs May should appoint an ex military man as her new Party Chairman Ladbrokes have a market on who the next Chairman or Chairwoman of the the Tory party will be. It seems Sir Patrick McLoughlin will be standing down following his role in the disastrous general election campaign and the farce at the Tory conference when a ‘comedian’ interrupted Mrs May and the background behind Mrs May start falling apart, which in no way was symbolic for the shambles…

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Brexit – the Guilty Men?

Brexit – the Guilty Men?

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Cyclefree sticks her neck out and gives her choices Scepticism (Euroscepticism, certainly) has a bad press these days. But being sceptical of received wisdom, of grand plans and theories, of the assumption that because matters have always been this way, this is how they should remain, is a good thing. At its best, it’s the courage to ask “Why?”and “Why not?” We could have done with more of it when Mrs May came out with her alliterative but empty “Brexit…

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Tips for WH2020: Bullock, Hickenlooper – and Trump

Tips for WH2020: Bullock, Hickenlooper – and Trump

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The field is too clogged up with the debris and echoes of 2016 One of the enduring mysteries of political betting is the continuing strength of David Miliband in the Next Labour Leader market. Despite his not having sat in the Commons for four and a half years, despite his showing no inclination to return, despite there being little opportunity to return in the near term, despite his politics now being completely out of line with a Labour Party whose…

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The trend in the YouGov Brexit tracker edges towards those who think it is wrong

The trend in the YouGov Brexit tracker edges towards those who think it is wrong

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Above is my annotated version of the latest YouGov summary chart showing the top line responses since the referendum when the the firm’s tracker question was asked. The question is in exactly the same form every time and reads “In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?” I’ve put a little green tick against those polls where more thought it was right than wrong and a red one alongside where more…

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Why Theresa May’s Maidenhead could be the next parliamentary by-election in a CON held seat

Why Theresa May’s Maidenhead could be the next parliamentary by-election in a CON held seat

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Two days ago in my post on why there would not be a general election until 2022 I observed that there have been very few by elections in CON held seats in recent times. Tory MPs have been a lot healthier than LAB ones. What CON by-elections defences there have been have been caused by other factors such as the weird resignation by the then shadow Home Secretary David Davis in 2008 so he could fight his own seat for…

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