Time is running out for Mrs May to be removed this year, the same applies to a second referendum this year, ergo you should bet accordingly.
William Hill have a range of markets up and to be honest most of them seem very unappealing, but if I had to choose from this market, I’d go for the 1/100 on there being no 2nd EU In/Out referendum in 2017 and the 1/12 on Theresa May still being PM on the 1st of January 2018.
The logic behind both bets is similar, there’s not enough time for the other side of the bet to win.
On the 2nd referendum we have just over two months for the legislation to be proposed & passed, and for a referendum campaign to occur, not going to happen on a practical basis let alone a political basis.
As for Mrs May still being PM on New Year’s Day, again time is an issue. If she were to resign today, I’d expect no coronation but a full blown leadership contest, the votes by the MPs will take us into the middle of November, as I’m expecting a lot more candidates to stand than last time.
In 2005 it took nearly seven weeks from the end of the MPs shortlisting the final two to the result being announced, so on a similar timetable, the result won’t be announced until January 2018, which is the point Mrs May’s tenure as PM ends.
I know 1/100 and 1/12 bets aren’t risk free nor exciting, but if you’re risk averse, these might be the bets for you.