Corbyn becomes an even stronger betting favourite to be the next PM

Corbyn becomes an even stronger betting favourite to be the next PM

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The current scandals are moving the markets Above is the betdata.io trend chart showing the big movement to Corbyn in the next PM market. This is a crazy market as I’ve observed here before. Fact is that it is hard to see how Corbyn or any Labour leader becomes PM before the next general election and after TMay’s GE2017 experience she is hardly going to precipitate an early election once again. In any case it is hard to see the…

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If Damian Green goes that could put massive pressure on the PM

If Damian Green goes that could put massive pressure on the PM

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Getting closer to TMay. Damian Green, her deputy & long standing Oxford friend being investigatedhttps://t.co/FhqNllVt4z pic.twitter.com/Lz4k3NVT9N — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 1, 2017 The political friendship between Theresa May and Damian Green goes back more than three decades to their time as students together in Oxford. He served in the Home Office with her and it was no surprise that Green was appointed a Cabinet minister in July 2016. It was to him that she turned to after GE17 disappointment…

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As the pressure grows on Trump over Russian connections his core supporters rally round even more

As the pressure grows on Trump over Russian connections his core supporters rally round even more

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Most Trump loyalists think Russia wanted Hillary Clinton to win A new US poll by Public Policy Polling finds record level of support for the President to be impeached. Now 49% say he should with 41% saying he shouldn’t. But it is not all one way traffic as this extract from the firm’s analysis of its news finding suggest. “Attempts by Trump world, Fox News, and other affiliated interests to try to turn the Russia news back onto Hillary Clinton…

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BMG finds 63% now want an elected House of Lords – up 15 points on two years ago

BMG finds 63% now want an elected House of Lords – up 15 points on two years ago

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And 27% (+5) want it abolished completely Maybe its down to the Brexit-induced greater focus on constitutional affairs but support for overhauling the second chamber has soared over the past two years – from 48% backing partly- or fully-elected upper house in 2015, to 63% now, according to polling by BMG Research commissioned by the Electoral Reform Society. The poll found that 27% thought the second chamber should be abolished – up from 22% in 2015 – while only 10%…

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Trump failing to complete a full term now odds-on as court moves start against former campaign chief

Trump failing to complete a full term now odds-on as court moves start against former campaign chief

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The biggest current political betting markets on whether Trump is going to survive and him being there at the end of 2020 is looking a touch less likely with his campaign boss, Paul Manafort, due to make a first appearance later today. On Betfair Trump not making it to the end of his term is now a 53% chance. In broad terms the charges are that Manafort oversaw a money-laundering scheme involving more than $75 million from pro-Russia political groups….

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In the TMay successor betting the BoJo price slumps

In the TMay successor betting the BoJo price slumps

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Betdata.io The political day in the UK has been dominated by the Westminster harassment allegations and the spreadsheet listing the names of MPs, including ministers, said to have committed inappropriate behaviour. Whether this has driven the changes in the next CON leader betting I don’t know. The chart based on Betfair last trades at 2100 GMT is above. The trend has been moving away from the ex-mayor since the election when he stood as a 30% chance. The problem with…

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If these rumours turn out to be accurate I can see a 2018 general election happening

If these rumours turn out to be accurate I can see a 2018 general election happening

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Tory MPs tell me they are deeply anxious sexual harassment scandal escalating to be worse than expenses, and devastating for May https://t.co/eroIk0FRiD — Robert Peston (@Peston) October 30, 2017 PM’s official spokesman has refused to say she is confident none of her Cabinet have committed sexual misconduct. A bizarre state. — Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) October 30, 2017 PM fears dossier on pervy MPs may force her into cabinet reshuffle. https://t.co/e96RDxi8yX — David Wooding (@DavidWooding) October 28, 2017 Not looking…

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Congratulations to TMay for surviving beyond October 29th

Congratulations to TMay for surviving beyond October 29th

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She’s doing better than IDS in 2003 Yesterday was the 14th anniversary of what I considered to be one of the best political betting days ever where the best place to find out what was happening was to look at the prices on the Betfair Exchange. After taking over from William Hague two days after 9/11 Iain Duncan Smith struggled for more than 2 years to maintain the confidence of his party and that all finally snapped at the end…

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