politicalbetting.com – Page 871 – The web's premier resource for political betting.

Ex-CON leadership favourite, DDavis, slips to just 6.6% chance on Betfair

6/12/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Commons contempt moves start against Davis .@ChukaUmunna has written to the Speaker to initiate contempt proceedings against @DavidDavisMP for telling MPs in October Brexit impact assessments were being made, when in fact – according to Davis’s testimony today – no such risk assessments have been made — Robert Peston (@Peston) December 6, 2017 https://twitter.com/sproggar/status/938433085330378752 Only DGreen seen as more likely by punters to be next Cabinet exit Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

If the Brexit impact papers don’t exist what were the redacted papers that were made available a few weeks back?

6/12/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The reputation of BrexSec DDavis takes another dive By all account this has been another extraordinary Brexit day. As well as TMay’s troubles with the DUP we have DDavis now saying the the impact assessment papers on 58 sections of the economy simply do not exist. This is crazy as this long Twitter thread makes clear. These were being referred to first in July 2016. Maybe the move by Davis his morning was the latest wheeze to stop them being…

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Moore remains odds-on favourite in Alabama even though the Dems are spending nearly ten times as much on TV ads like these

6/12/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Will the big spending Dems campaign produce a sensation? The biggest current political betting markets in the UK are not about British politics at all. They were about the US with Trump’s survival being number one and the Alabama senate race, which takes place next Tuesday, number two. The latter has the advantage of being settled very soon. Punters have only a few days to wait until they know whether their gamble has paid off or not. At the moment…

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Marf on the Irish border shambles

5/12/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

In late April the Tory data chief, Jim Messina, told senior Tories that his modelling pointed to a CON majority of 290

5/12/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Put this on your “Christmas” list I’m just back in the UK after my holiday on the West Coast of the US visiting my son, Robert, and his family who have moved to LA from London in July. Part of my holiday reading was Betting The House: The Inside Story of the 2017 Election by Tim Ross and Tom McTague which was published last month. It is an absorbing read giving a detailed account of GE2017 based on conversations with…

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Survation Scotland poll offers great potential for Corbyn

5/12/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Picture: Latest Survation Scottish Westminster VI poll translated into seats Over the last day or so Survation have released their Scotland specific polling, and it presents get potential for Corbyn. Survation say If we input today’s published vote share figures into Baxter’s Scotland model, modelling today’s figures against the vote share the parties achieved at the General Election we can see the effect on seats at play. Although the SNP has essentially the same vote share in today’s polling as…

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Yippee ki-yay, The British public say Die Hard is NOT a Christmas movie

4/12/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Only 31% of voters say Die Hard is a Christmas movie @yougov finds. Not surprising, The Empire Strikes Back has more snow in it than Die Hard. pic.twitter.com/E2e8RIqpNg — TSE (@TSEofPB) December 4, 2017 Die Hard is NOT a Christmas movie – 50% of Brits say a movie that takes place at Christmas but is not about Christmas is not a Christmas movie (only 31% think it is) https://t.co/dR7mBbq3vr pic.twitter.com/2HIKys4EYk — YouGov (@YouGov) December 4, 2017 TSE

No deal, yet

4/12/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

"On a couple of issues, some differences do remain" – UK PM Theresa May on failure to reach deal with EU in #Brexit talks https://t.co/UEqjIb9s51 pic.twitter.com/b5OqkrAsXy — BBC Breaking News (@BBCBreaking) December 4, 2017 It's hard to see how this could have been handled any worse. https://t.co/FctHHEmzuE — Adam Bienkov (@AdamBienkov) December 4, 2017 Hearing it was the DUP call that sunk today's chances of a deal – Foster held her press conf, 20 mins later May leaves talks with…

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