How punters saw 2017 on three key UK political betting markets
The year of next General Election is based on the last six months. All charts based on Betfair Exchange trades monitored by Betdata.io Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
What 2018 could have in store for Trump (and who might he face in 2020)
On his return from the U.S., Keiran Pedley gives us the rundown on what is happening stateside Having spent a few weeks in New Jersey, as I usually do this time of year, it will not come as much of a surprise that the news media there is wall to wall Trump. However, as a keen observer of US politics, I do enjoy being over there and watching the political comings and goings ‘live’ – you can often pick up…
Theresa May is set to conduct a major reshuffle in January, but will she end up causing even more problems for herself?
Great for @ShippersUnbound to have such an informed reshuffle piece, but aides briefing on reshuffles causes mayhem – angry ministers start demanding private reassurances and counter-briefing begins. Soon someone asks: are sure we *really* want to do this? pic.twitter.com/E9f99pWHJ5 — Craig Oliver (@CraigOliver100) December 31, 2017 Five more malcontents on the backbenches might be a mistake. Both The Sunday Times and The Sun on Sunday have stories about Mrs May planning to conduct an extensive reshuffle in January. This is…
Three tips on who might be Theresa May’s successor
A few days before Christmas I had lunch with a friend who has followed the Tory party for decades and knows it quite well. Inevitability the conversation turned on who might be Mrs May’s successor, their observations had a quite the impact and led to an update to my betting portfolio. My friend and I are of the consensus that if Mrs May survives into 2020 then her successor is likely to be someone who is currently not in the…
Local By-Election Review 2017 – how the parties have performed
To describe 2017 as a year of two halves would be absolutely correct, as the general election held on June 8th marked a distinct dividing line not only at Westminster (between a Conservative majority of 12 and no majority) but also in local by-elections with the electoral pendulum swinging rapidly from one side to the other and so therefore it is best to look at the year before and after the general election Before the General Election (January 1st –…
Defining Britain: who wins that battle will likely win GE2022
The UK’s self-image must change post-Brexit – but to what? By rights, the Conservative Party should have disappeared a long time ago. On the wrong side of the Reform debate before 1832, their opponents dominated the middle of the nineteenth century. That was in no small part down to divisions within the Tories but was also because the Liberals had a better vision to sell to a rapidly industrialising and urbanising Britain and to its newly enfranchised electorate. As the…
The challenges facing the Conservatives
The Conservatives are in power and in disarray. They possess a will to power but no common view on what to do with it. For now the bulk of the party is intent on pursuing Brexit to its bitter conclusion. But what then? What indeed. For the Conservative coalition has been turned upside down. Charles gave a crisp summary a couple of weeks ago of the three Conservative tribes. All three have abandoned their usual stances in the face of…
Tories are aping DTrump when they claim the electoral system’s rigged against them
It is bollocks for minsters to suggest that electoral system favours LAB. Now CON main beneficiary .GE17CON win 48.9% of MPs with 42.4% voteLAB win 40.3% of MPs with 40% of voteLDs 1.8% of MPs with 7.4% of votehttps://t.co/AaCXsFOWOx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 29, 2017 The headline on the Telelgraph's Trump-like Labour's trying to rig election front page lead pic.twitter.com/zJPoPDiSDW — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 29, 2017 The Telegraph’s making a fool of itself I know it is the…