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Never forget that the vast majority of those who voted for Trump are happy with their President

15/1/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

A recent YouGov/The Economist survey found almost 90% of Trump voters think the President is doing a good overall job #BBCPanorama pic.twitter.com/W0USzmEeWN — BBC Panorama (@BBCPanorama) January 15, 2018 And the betting continues to point to his survival UK punters on Betfair continue to bet on Trump’s survival pic.twitter.com/cnHgavmDqY — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 15, 2018 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

The coming West Tyrone by-election would only matter if the winner took his/her seat at Westminster

15/1/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Wikipedia The seat will have land border with the Irish Republic and EU following Brexit At last we have the first by-election of the 2017 Parliament. It is in West Tyrone in Northern Ireland where the sitting Sinn Fein MP has decided to resign following controversy over things that he posted on the internet. Given that following his party’s normal practice he has never taken his seat at Westminster the margins from last June look so great that the coming…

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UKIP voters are the only ones who think Donald Trump is more intelligent than average

15/1/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

I doubt if the occupant of the White House reads the Observer or actually look at polling that is anything other than flattering him. But if he did he is his current apparent anger with the UK would have been reinforced. One of the questions was whether British voters thought that Mr Trump was above or below average intelligence. The findings by party splits are in the chart above. As can be seen overall there was an extraordinary low view…

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Mrs May’s weird plot to make Gavin Williamson her successor is likely to fail

14/1/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Mrs May is annoying far too many people in the party & that will cause her and her preferred successor problems in the future Trying to understand Mrs May’s recent reshuffle has been a challenge, but over the weekend a few people suggested it was all part of a weird plot to make Gavin Williamson Tory leader, Iain Martin says Theresa May’s reshuffle was rubbish for a reason it seems. In the days that followed this week’s half-hearted reconstruction of the…

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If Scotland has its own Secretary of State then so should London

14/1/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Graphic: The last two general election results in London via the BBC We were promised a New Year reshuffle. In the end, it resembled not so much a game of musical chairs as musical statues, with only Justine Greening, Patrick McLoughlin and James Brokenshire falling over. Theresa May was unable to impose herself more fully on her Cabinet. The chief points of interest were in the adding of social care to the Secretary of State for Health’s remit and the…

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The YouGov Brexit tracker continues to show that those who think it is wrong have the edge

13/1/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The comparison with a year ago is greater than the margin of error With all that has been going on with Donald Trump I have yet to post on PB my regular chart showing the trend in YouGov’s Brexit tracker since the referendum took place. Because every change in every single pole be regarded as simply within the margin of error what I tried to to take the average for YouGov findings each month and reflected this in the chart….

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Putin on a show: finding value in March’s Russian election

13/1/2018 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

The question is not whether Vlad will win but by how much Vladimir Putin has now run Russia for longer than anyone since Stalin.* It’s all but certain that he will continue to do so after this March’s presidential election. Ladbrokes are offering odds of 1/50 that he wins a fourth full term, which are nonetheless value: probably the shortest-ever odds tipped as such on this site. Looked at another way, it might only be a 2% return in about…

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Tonight’s Trump news – the payoff just before WH2016 and the Donald urinal

12/1/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

NEW: A lawyer for Donald Trump arranged a $130,000 payment to a former adult-film star a month before the 2016 election as part of an agreement that precluded her from publicly discussing an alleged sexual encounter with Mr. Trump, per people familiar.https://t.co/KZhdex7UKE — erica orden (@eorden) January 12, 2018 After Trump's "sh*thole" remarks yesterday, it's time this picture got another airing. pic.twitter.com/txKJ2X5Sq0 — Guy de Jonquières (@guydej1) January 12, 2018