The comparison with a year ago is greater than the margin of error
With all that has been going on with Donald Trump I have yet to post on PB my regular chart showing the trend in YouGov’s Brexit tracker since the referendum took place.
Because every change in every single pole be regarded as simply within the margin of error what I tried to to take the average for YouGov findings each month and reflected this in the chart.
We are seeing a situation where the trend is quite clear and that there has been a discernible though small shift from those who think that the referendum outcome was right to those who think that it was wrong.
Looking at the detail of the polling the movement is largely caused by more Leaver backers from June 2016 now saying don’t know. There have been few switchers.
Interestingly in the first poll 2017 those who thought it was right had a 4 point lead. The first poll of 2018 has those who think it was wrong how has a 4% lead.
Whatever I do not think we have seen a big enough to shift for ministers to be concerned. The critical thing in all of this is the position of Mr Corbyn who has never convinced anybody that he is a remainer. That could spell problems for him at some time given that LAB voters overwhelmingly believe the referendum outcome was wrong. He is out of step.
Hopefully we might see some more polling tonight.