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Trump ends his first year in the White House with punters giving him a 60% chance staying till 2020 or later

19/1/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

With the exception of the period of the UK General Election the biggest political betting markets of the past year have been on Donald Trump. Is he going to survive a full first term? Will he win again in 2020? What will be the year of his actual departure from the White House? These are obviously going to be linked to how the news media are treating him but even the controversial Michael Wolff book did not take his survival…

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Laura Pidcock – the 33/1 newbie MP who is being tipped as Corbyn’s successor

18/1/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

A small flutter might be worthwhile Following what was perceived to be a success at the last general election, although Labour finished 58 seats behind, there have been few questions about the future of Jeremy Corbyn. He looks pretty secure and the biggest issue he faces is that he will be in his early 70s if the next election does take place, as planned, in 2022. Will LAB want to go into the election with their flag carrier being in…

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PB’s lunchtime cartoon for the day of the Macron visit

18/1/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

What’s TMay’s strategy?

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Vote blue go green? Farage, Boris & 2nd referendums (again) plus Labour NEC election fallout

18/1/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

On this week’s podcast, Keiran and Leo continue with the new format of the show where each guest chooses a news story that has interested them from the past week and provides some polling analysis on a key issue of the day. Topics discussed this week include: 1) What the Tories’ new focus on environmental issues says about their brand and future electoral strategy 2) Why Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson are indicating support for another referendum on Brexit and…

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Alastair Meeks recommends his approach to baldness as Britain’s best post-Brexit strategy

17/1/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

The 1970s were my best decade for hair production. My parents have pictures of me at a young age in lurid paisley colours with an Osmond-like hair helmet. Those pictures are safely under lock and key. By the mid-90s, I was in remedial trichology. My hairline was under assault from above and below: my scalp was covered by only a sketchy film of strands. It was time to take stock. I took the advice of Quentin Crisp on the subject:…

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Double blow for SNP in new YouGov Scotland poll: support for independence down & more MP losses projected

17/1/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

New Times YouGov Scotland poll suggests SNP could be DOWN 8 to 27 Westminster seats at next GE. At GE2015 Sturgeon's party won 56 of Scotland's 59 seats https://t.co/GbyYxsinuN pic.twitter.com/PDC394lsdl — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 17, 2018 YouGov Times Scotland poll finds Support for independence dwindles https://t.co/GbyYxsinuN pic.twitter.com/uzI4z5RDZb — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 17, 2018 But they should still be top party at Holyrood We get so few Scotland only polls these days that when a new one comes out,…

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Only problem Paul (Mason) is that Corbyn’s LAB needs 7-10% vote lead to win majority

16/1/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

18/ Our biggest challenge is to maintain Labour as an alliance of social democrats, left-liberals, old-style Bennite socialists and radical leftists – and to turn it into a, or more accurately towards the, social movements.. — Paul Mason (@paulmasonnews) January 16, 2018 We are miles away from seeing the required LAB vote breakthrough Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

Seat projection from today’s ICM poll has CON ahead on MPs even though behind on votes

16/1/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

When’s the Corbyn Clique going to work out that the system now works against LAB? The latest ICM Guardian poll out and the figures – C40/LB41/LD7 – are included above in the seat projection from Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus. As can be seen that although the Conservatives are one point behind on votes this, according to the projection, will put them one ahead in terms of seats. This reflects a big trend that first was noticed at GE2015 when the…

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