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The star who plays a LAB MP in tonight’s new BBC political thriller is worried about state of the party

12/2/2018 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Why Don Brind thinks he shouldn’t be David Mars is a Labour MP worried about the state of his party and at odds with his leader. Described as a “frustrated but hard-working member of the shadow cabinet” the central character in tonight’s BBC2 thriller Collateral “despairs at the state of the Labour Party and many of its policies .. he’s not afraid to be outspoken and on more than one occasion he finds himself in hot water with the party…

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None of the Above takes 44% lead in new CON leadership poll

12/2/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

With a new week opening and Mrs Msy still there at number 10 there is a new poll out in the Independent on who voters think should be her successor. The outcome is far from decisive for although Johnson has a lead he is 44% behind the number saying none of the above. This really reflects the situation we have known since July the 9th after Theresa May failed to retain the Conservative majority in the general election. Her situation…

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Things are so bad with Mrs May that some Tory MPs want Nick Timothy back to provide direction

11/2/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Well this is how bad Mrs May's indecision over Brexit is, some Tory MPs want her to bring back Nick Timothy. Top scoop as usual from @ShippersUnbound. https://t.co/OM7N4jXzRO pic.twitter.com/oAoe2tWbZP — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 11, 2018 It is clear that whatever decision makes on Brexit it will likely hasten Mrs May’s departure. The Sunday Times say The standard bearer of the hardliners, Jacob Rees-Mogg, has privately told colleagues he would be a lot more relaxed “if we knew what we were…

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A few assorted bets for your perusal

11/2/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

William Hill have a few markets on various events, a lot of these appear designed to enrich William Hill or ones that I wish William Hill offered the other side of the bet. I’d really like to bet on UK GDP growth to be lower than 1.8% one calendar year after Brexit. The 4/7 on the Democrats to win a majority in the House of Representatives seems like the safest bet. On the principle on betting on something NOT happening…

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A third pollster now reports that TMay’s Tories are in the lead

10/2/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Wikpedia This’ll make it harder to oust TMay After a period since the Jube general election when LAB toppped just about every published poll there’s been a sharp change in February. Latest out is Opinium for tomorrow’s Observer. These are e numbers with changes on last month. CON 42 (+2) LAB 39 (-1) LDt 7 (+1) UKIP 5 (n/c) So three separate polling organisations all have the direction of travel moving to the blue team. This will help reinforce the…

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The Tory Brexit divide is in the cabinet – the LAB one is between the leadership & party supporters

10/2/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

We’ve heard a lot in the past few days about the arguments inside the cabinet between the rival factions over the form of Brexit that individual ministers want. How that will turn out is far from clear and whether it will be the Philip Hammond or the Boris Johnson approach that prevails. Clearly because they are not the government there is much less focus on the LAB Brexit divide between the bulk of party supporters and the leadership. That could…

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If not May, then who?

10/2/2018 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

Assessing the runners and riders of the next Tory leadership contest Correctly identifying the next Conservative leader is a notoriously tricky task. While the golden rule is to lay the favourite – something which can accumulate good profits over a prolonged period – it’s still quite a cautious strategy. The more ambitious, but much more difficult, one is to try to back the winner. That’s not to say that it’s impossible and now that the latest bout of speculation over…

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Eight months on from GE17 how LAB doing is performing in the polls compared with earlier main opposition parties at the same stage

9/2/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

David Cowling, the leading election analyst and former head of BBC political research, has produced an excellent paper which asks the question of why Corbyn’s Labour is not doing better in the polls. The response that is coming from the party to recent surveys is to refer back to the polling what happened on June 8th and the fact that party did better than most, though not all, of the surveys on the day itself. The concluding part of the…

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