Why Tories are wrong to fear that Corbyn could become Prime Minister in the foreseeable future – part 1

Why Tories are wrong to fear that Corbyn could become Prime Minister in the foreseeable future – part 1

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There isn’t going to be an early general election Labour came out of the last election 56 seats short of the Tories and the MP totals of other parties barely make up the gap particularly as Sinn Fein don’t take up their seats. This situation eas exacerbated by the Conservative-DUP no confidence vote agreement. As the law stands at the moment there are only two ways that an election can take place before 2022. The first would require the Conservatives…

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Winning where? The Lib Dem targets for 2022

Winning where? The Lib Dem targets for 2022

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Alastair Meeks looks at the challenges facing Cable’s party Three years ago, the Lib Dems were still in government. Danny Alexander and Nick Clegg comprised half of the quad, the inner circle that fixed the government’s direction. It feels like a lifetime ago now. The Lib Dems were reduced to 8 MPs in 2015 and recovered only to 12 MPs last year (with a slight decline in vote share nationally), despite being the only party to advocate remaining in the…

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The fight to succeed TMay – part 127

The fight to succeed TMay – part 127

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S Times story on Gavin Williamson won't help his leadership ambitions pic.twitter.com/8Qe27jaa2q — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 27, 2018 Doesn’t look good for the DefSec – said to be TMay’s preferred successor And BoJo steps up the ante Boris Johnson will challenge Theresa May to demand a ‘buccaneering Brexit’ amid fears PM will ‘f*** this up’ https://t.co/l3yWnF12iv — Sun Politics (@SunPolitics) January 27, 2018 In the betting Amber Rudd moves to 3rd favourite

LAB/CON/LDs all see vote shares up, UKIP/GREEN down in January local by elections

LAB/CON/LDs all see vote shares up, UKIP/GREEN down in January local by elections

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Local By-Election Summary : January 2018 Votes Cast, Share, Vote Share Change and Seat Change Conservatives 11,047 votes (47.75% +5.71% on last time) winning 7 seats (+1 seat on last time) Labour 6,036 votes (26.09% +6.28% on last time) winning 1 seat (-1 seat on last time) Liberal Democrats 3,538 votes (15.29% +5.62% on last time) winning 1 seat (unchanged on last time) Independent candidates 1,070 votes (4.62% -3.29% on last time) winning 1 seat (unchanged on last time) Green…

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Now isn’t the time to push May, whatever the temptation

Now isn’t the time to push May, whatever the temptation

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But there’s a good chance Con MPs will do it anyway Only one of the three traditional British parties currently has a leader – and that one by happenstance. To lead is by definition a dynamic thing. It is to set oneself at the head of something and take it somewhere in such a way that others follow. It is not a quality granted simply by virtue of holding a given office. On those terms, Vince Cable is not a…

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ICM finds the biggest backing yet for a referendum on the final deal

ICM finds the biggest backing yet for a referendum on the final deal

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Brexit: Britons favour second referendum by 16-point margin – new ICM poll https://t.co/Kvw8o8zI29 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 26, 2018 ICM finds 47% saying they'd be in favour of new referendum once terms known – 34% against. Excluding don't knows that's a split of 58% to 42% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 26, 2018 New ICM poll finds that 9% of LAB leave voters no say they'd vote remain in a 2nd referendum — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 26, 2018…

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A worry for LAB? The gloss could be coming off Corbyn’s appeal to young voters

A worry for LAB? The gloss could be coming off Corbyn’s appeal to young voters

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Perhaps the great hope of Corbyn’s Labour is that when the next general election comes, whenever that is, comes that the party will be able to repeat the GE2017 feat and secure huge backing from the youth vote. It was this, of course, combined with a much reduced turnout by the over-65s, that resulted in Theresa May GE17 gamble failing and the Tories losing their majority. Maybe young voters will central again but there’s some evidence now that support from…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: How favourable are Brits towards different countries and how old is ‘too old’ to be PM?

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: How favourable are Brits towards different countries and how old is ‘too old’ to be PM?

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On this week’s podcast Keiran and Leo look at some polling by Opinium that asks how favourable or unfavourable the British public is towards the following countries with some interesting differences by Brexit vote and age.  A summary of the results can be found below: (Note – nets may appear to be one point out in places due to rounding) Source: Opinium. 19-22 Jan, 2018. Tables with appear on the Opinium website in due course. Also on the show, Keiran…

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