Moggy still leads Jez in the “PM after TMay” betting
Data/chart via Betdata.io Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
New Ashcroft poll of London suggests TMay’s Tories should expect a hammering in May
There’s a new 3,060 sample London poll from Lord Ashcroft in the Evening Standard which points to the blue team facing a struggle in the capital to hold onto to all the council that it runs . Three are highlighted, Wandsworth, Barnet and Westminster, as being ones which could fall. The Tories could also struggle in SW London where it is defending Kingston and Richmond from the LDs. As ever there are lots of well-presented tables in the report and…
If there is a second referendum Remain should demand that all voters show photo ID
Financial Times Last time those without passports were most likely to vote leave At this stage last year the Tories were riding high. The party had just taken Copeland from LAB and all the polls had the Tories in the 40s with LAB in the 20s. In spite of her quite narrow CON majority Mrs. May was assuring the country that there would be no General Election until 2020 as laid down in the Fixed Term Parliament Act. That did…
Interesting news for those of us betting on the year of Trump’s exit date
CNN obtained a tape of Trump at a closed-door fundraiser. He said this about China's president: "He's now president for life. President for life. And he's great. And look, he was able to do that. I think it's great. Maybe we'll give that a shot some day." https://t.co/FzLjVtlhl1 — Brian Stelter (@brianstelter) March 4, 2018 My expectation for a while has been health or assassins permitting Donald Trump’s tenure as President will end on January 20th 2025, and have been…
Jeremy Corbyn is an unconventional politician, the normal rules of politics and polling don’t apply to him
Some underestimate just how good a campaigner Jeremy Corbyn is and crucially he likes campaigning. There’s been quite a lot of comment about Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour not polling well enough against the Tories to ensure he becomes Prime Minister after the next general election. But my hypothesis is that the only time we should judge Corbyn is during a general election campaign. I’ve got this feeling those people are once again underestimating Corbyn because he’s not a conventional politician, he’s…
It is a big mistake to assume that the decline of UKIP means its voters automatically go to the Tories
Serious analysis shows this is not happening One of the big electoral assumptions that continues to be made is that the decline of UKIP means that their votes shift almost an entirety to the Conservatives. We saw this thinking big time in a run up to the June 2016 general election when people were looking at the previous results from a seat and simply adding the UKIP share to the Tory total to come to some of you as to…
Introducing the new Confident Corbyn
Two-and-a-half years after being elected, he’s finally acting like a leader Something has happened to Jeremy Corbyn; something which few would have thought possible, never mind expected a year ago: he has become comfortable doing the job expected of a party leader. Indeed, more than that: he has become confident in the role. Part of that is, of course, a consequence of the general election – but it’s only a part. Sure, he revelled then in addressing mass rallies, in…
Blow for LAB as YouGov finds Corbyn’s approach to Brexit getting just 24% support
43% of those polled by YouGov say they oppose While all the attention today has been on Theresa Mays big Brexit speech we’ve now got the first polling reaction from YouGov to Mr Corbyn’s statements earlier in the week. Although this was covered widely by the media on Monday the general reaction has been fairly negative for the Labour leader. Just 24% said they support the approach that he is taking with 43% saying they oppose. Significantly just 38% of…