Until leave’s referendum expenses issues are sorted opponents will be able to cast doubt over Brexit’s legitimacy

Until leave’s referendum expenses issues are sorted opponents will be able to cast doubt over Brexit’s legitimacy

Comments 0 Comment

The overnight news that the government have refused the Electoral Commission’s desire for the sources of the DUP’s pre 2017 donations to be revealed will only add to speculation that something is amiss. What was the source of the £425k that TMay’s “supply & confidence” partners were given ahead of the referendum? In the meantime the Electoral Commission have confirmed to me that two previously announced campaign funding investigations continue – one into Leave EU and the other into the…

Read More Read More

How the EU hierarchy is losing supportive governments

How the EU hierarchy is losing supportive governments

Comments 0 Comment

One of the less attractive aspects of British Euroscepticism (a keenly-contested category) is the willingness of many supporters to see the imminent collapse of the EU with every electoral development around the continent. Last year, Eurosceptics were salivating at the prospect of Geert Wilders’ party topping the poll in the Dutch election. Thwarted on that front, nearly nine out of ten Leave cats who expressed a preference decided that Marine Le Pen’s election as French president would be best for…

Read More Read More

Remember from just a year ago the polling build-up to TMay’s dramatic decision to call an election?

Remember from just a year ago the polling build-up to TMay’s dramatic decision to call an election?

Comments 0 Comment

Based on these numbers a bigger majority was almost a certainty Almost whatever Mrs May does in the rest of her career she is going to go down as the PM who called an election when she had a majority and ended up without one. With the benefit of hindsight it looks like a massive mistake. Yet looking at the polling from the 6 weeks before her dramatic decision who could blame her for believing that this was a almost…

Read More Read More

Punters make it a 58% chance that Britain WON’T leave the EU by March 29 2019

Punters make it a 58% chance that Britain WON’T leave the EU by March 29 2019

Comments 0 Comment

This market could get very busy – time to study the rules One thing about being a betting exchange like Betfair is that it has to stand in the middle between those who want to place bets and those who want to lay them. This means that in complex markets, which most political ones are, the rules have to be watertight to ensure that there are no arguments and disputes later. I had a period when I was advising Betfair…

Read More Read More

For all TMay’s travails she continues to have a clear lead over Corbyn as “best PM”

For all TMay’s travails she continues to have a clear lead over Corbyn as “best PM”

Comments 0 Comment

JC’s heady days of last June are becoming a distant memory Back in June, after Corbyn’s LAB got 4 seats closer to the Tory MP total than Gordon Brown’s party seven years earlier, there was a massive euphoria around the Labour leader. He could do no wrong and was reported to have said he expected to be PM by last Christmas. That, of course, didn’t happen and he then revised that to Christmas 2018. Then, in its first poll immediately…

Read More Read More

Democrats take small lead in Special Pennsylvania Congressional election in district won by Trump at WH2016 by 20%

Democrats take small lead in Special Pennsylvania Congressional election in district won by Trump at WH2016 by 20%

Comments 0 Comment

A bellwether for the November midterms What’s getting a lot of coverage in the US media at the moment is a big battle going on in the outskirts of Pittsburgh in a Special Congressional election caused by the resignation of the Republican incumbent over a sex scandal. It is said that millions of dollars has been spent and the Democrats are hoping they can take the district in an area that was natural Trump territory at WH2016. His margin was…

Read More Read More