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The Pennsylvania election almost a dead heat and hard to see how a clear result tonight

14/3/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

As expected the special election in Pennsylvania has been extraordinarily tight and as can be seen from the New York Times table above this is a virtual dead heat. At the moment, 0300GMT, about 11000 absentee ballots have still to be counted and it is hard to see how we can get a result overnight. Betfair has been swinging all the time with news of each minute precinct pushing it one way or the other. Whatever this is a very…

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The Democrats now odds on favourite to take Pennsylvania 18 – the Congressional district won by Trump at WH2016 by 20%

13/3/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

New market on Rick Saccone's vote share in today's Pennsylvania special election ?? pic.twitter.com/VpMjd1koe3 — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) March 13, 2018 Polls close at midnight UK time The big political betting event today is the special election (a by-election in UK parlance) in Pennsylvania Congressional district 18 which covers the outskirts of Pittsburgh and where Trump had a 20 point margin at WH2016. As the RealClear Politics polling table above shows this is looking very tight with the Democratic party…

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Moving the dial. How Britain swung last year

13/3/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Mansfield, Kensington, Canterbury and Stoke-on-Trent South: when political commentators wanted to demonstrate the weird and conflicting swings that took place at the last general election, that quartet’s names kept being brought up. That’s all well and good, but there has been surprisingly little interest in the broader picture. So I have taken the time to put together a map of the swings in Britain, which you can see above. It is interactive, so you can zoom in on specific areas…

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TMay says it’s “highly likely” that Russia responsible for the Salisbury attacks – the question now is what Britain will do

12/3/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Theresa May said it was “highly likely” that Russia is responsible for the poisoning of a former Russian spy https://t.co/zYJzVi0ZIM — BuzzFeed UK Politics (@BuzzFeedUKPol) March 12, 2018 May says government will consider Russian response on Wed. If there is no satisfactory answer the UK will deem the Kremlin has carried out "unlawful use of force" on British territory — Luke Harding (@lukeharding1968) March 12, 2018 #Russian response to UK measures over Skripal may go beyond tit-for-tat. BBC likely to…

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Just launched new pollster featuring Martin Boon and Joe Twyman formerly of ICM and YouGov

12/3/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Welcome to Deltapoll Today sees the launch of a brand new opinion research company, Deltapoll, which brings together names and faces that many people on this website might be familiar with. Joe Twyman has for years been the primary face of public opinion in the UK in his position as YouGov’s head of political research, and Martin Boon spend 23 years at ICM, delivering polls that have been relentlessly reported in these pages. Our third founder, Paul Flatters, is also…

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Trump ups the ante in Pennsylvania 18 staking a lot on his man winning tomorrow’s special election

12/3/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

A Republican hold would be big boost to the President In the early hours of Wednesday morning, UK time, I expect to be glued to CNN coverage of the results in the Pennsylvania 18th District special election. This is proving to be a massive battle and the outcome looks set to frame the narrative of how the November midterms are seen. The President is very aware of this and at the weekend made another highly publicised big visit to the…

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Peace talks for our time, but where?

11/3/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

The deal with North Korea is very much in the making and will be, if completed, a very good one for the World. Time and place to be determined. — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 10, 2018 Will Trump have his Nixon in China moment? Following the news about the summit between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un Ladbrokes have a market up on the location of the summit. It is well noted that Kim Jong-un is very paranoid, particularly about his own…

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Betting on who will the the next Speaker of the House of Commons

11/3/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Newsnight has learned of allegations that the Speaker of the House of Commons, John Bercow, mistreated an employee #newsnight pic.twitter.com/3qV8rtykGP — BBC Newsnight (@BBCNewsnight) March 9, 2018 The Sunday Times say 'With allegations of bullying by MPs sweeping Westminster, however, the Tory MP Andrew Bridgen will table a motion of no-confidence in the Speaker tomorrow.' https://t.co/gMwCfw6a1K — TSE (@TSEofPB) March 11, 2018 Laying Jacob Rees-Mogg as next Speaker is my strategy Following the allegations against Speaker Bercow the Tory MP…

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