If the DUP can make Martin McGuinness Deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland then we shouldn’t rule them out making Corbyn Prime Minister

If the DUP can make Martin McGuinness Deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland then we shouldn’t rule them out making Corbyn Prime Minister

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A Brexit deal that separates the Six Counties from the rest of the UK could rupture the DUP and Tory alliance for years. Over the last few years many observers on politics, myself included, have made assumptions that turned out be very wrong. Lib Dem incumbency would save them from a catastrophic seat loss in 2015, the electorate wouldn’t vote to make themselves poorer by Leaving the European Union, and Jeremy Corbyn’s backstory & a divided Labour party would see…

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Ahead of the May local elections Prof Michael Thrasher on the resources of The Elections Centre

Ahead of the May local elections Prof Michael Thrasher on the resources of The Elections Centre

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  Several recent up-dates and have been made to the Elections Centre website that should interest followers of Politicalbetting as we approach what appear to be an intriguing set of May local elections. The website also has two important additions – a new section covering council by-elections and another that hopefully will push the local elections database beyond the million candidate mark. The councils compositions calculator now covers the position up to and including last May’s local elections. There are other…

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It’s Cold War, Jim: but not as we know it

It’s Cold War, Jim: but not as we know it

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Russia is hostile and aggressive but it’s not a return to pre-1991 Nutcases and tyrants have historically had an easy ride in their own day; their crimes frequently being attributed to the unauthorised actions of ‘evil advisors’ rather than being commissioned from the top. Occasionally, this is true (the Peasant’s Revolt against Richard II might be one example – though Richard was only 14 at the time, and still a duplicitous and cruel character), but generally it isn’t. Time and…

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After last week’s Tory loss of 5 local by-elections the blue team returns to its winning ways

After last week’s Tory loss of 5 local by-elections the blue team returns to its winning ways

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Two CON holds and a gain Stamford, St. George’s on South Kesteven (Con defence) Result: Con 309 (46% +13% on last time), Ind 174 (26%, no candidate last time), Lab 114 (17% +1% on last time), Lib Dem 68 (10%, no candidate last time), Green 13 (2% -10% on last time) (No UKIP candidate this time -19%. No Stamford Independent this time -19%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 135 (20%) on a notional swing of 6.5% from Ind to…

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Theresa May may well yet achieve her ambition of leading her party at the next election

Theresa May may well yet achieve her ambition of leading her party at the next election

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There’s no talk now of letters calling for a confidence vote One of the features about the current Russia crisis is what it is doing to perceptions of Theresa May. The latest polling overnight showing her getting huge backing from voters for the way she is handling things reflect how her approach is very much resonating with the public mood. I thought yesterday her walk-about in Salisbury contrasted so much with some of the awful public appearances at the general…

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The extraordinary comment on Russia by the DefSec and the man who TMay is said to want to succeed her

The extraordinary comment on Russia by the DefSec and the man who TMay is said to want to succeed her

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Has Gavin Williamson (AKA “Private Pike”) blown it? I’ve been in London all day and have only just viewed the above for myself – the comment from the Defence Secretary, Gavin Williamson that Russia should just “go away and shut up”. Apparently this wasn’t just a spur of the moment comment but one that he had drafted before. It hardly seems the sort of language you would expect a minister in a senior position to make in the current situation…

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The Pennsylvania result – What happens when you try to take away publicly funded healthcare

The Pennsylvania result – What happens when you try to take away publicly funded healthcare

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The moves against ObamaCare seems to have been a big vote driver The US pollster Public Policy Polling carried out an on the day survey during Tuesday’s special Congressional election in Pennsylvania District 18. What is interesting from the data is that health care ranked as a top issue for 52% of voters and only 19% said it was not that important or not important at all. The data shows that the Democrat, Conor Lamb, won big especially among voters…

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