Analysis of the Q1 local by-elections finds CON struggling to benefit from the almost total collapse if the UKIP vote

Analysis of the Q1 local by-elections finds CON struggling to benefit from the almost total collapse if the UKIP vote

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Vote changes from by-elections in previously CON held wards Vote changes from by-elections in previously LAB held wards Vote changes from by-elections in previously UKIP held wards The real story of the local by-elections in the first quarter (and I suspect one that will be repeated in just five weeks time) is the collapse of UKIP losing 90% of it’s vote compared to last time and showing that it’s not just UKIP voters now voting Con, but UKIP candidates not…

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Right turn ahead. The Hungarian general election

Right turn ahead. The Hungarian general election

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Hungary is the holding pen of Europe. Sat on the Great Hungarian Plain, which is effectively the most westward of the steppes, it is no coincidence that successive invasions over many eras have come through Hungary and stopped at Vienna, from the Mongols to the Turks to the waves of migrants in 2015 – it is the line of least resistance. The last hundred years have not been good for Hungary. It lost two thirds of its territory at the…

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A year to go until Brexit day and punters think there’s a 57% chance of the UK leaving the EU on time

A year to go until Brexit day and punters think there’s a 57% chance of the UK leaving the EU on time

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Betdata.io The chart shows the movement on the Betfair brexit betting market since March 29th last year when article 50 was invoked. As can be seen there has been quite a change particularly in the past few weeks and now the money is going on the UK leaving the EU on March 29th 2019. This is all based on the Betfair betting exchange where different punters set the odds and not the bookmaker. For an exchange brings together those who…

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A year to go till Brexit and the latest YouGov tracker has Britain as divided as ever

A year to go till Brexit and the latest YouGov tracker has Britain as divided as ever

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A year to go and the latest chart based on the YouGov Brexit tracker pic.twitter.com/cqW6hhQL4z — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 29, 2018 Latest YouGov Brexit tracker finds "wrong to leave" once again with a lead.In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the EU? Right 42% -1Wrong 45% =DK 14% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 29, 2018 Chart with LAB voter split on Brexit tracker in latest YouGov poll pic.twitter.com/gyLXN4NQuo — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB)…

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The PB / Polling Matters podcast returns!

The PB / Polling Matters podcast returns!

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As a new YouGov poll shows the Tories 4 points ahead, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discuss the untold story of the recent Conservative resurgence in the polls and ask what is behind it and does it matter? Catching up on recent events, Keiran and Leo also discuss the Salisbury attack and delve into recent polling around its aftermath and Russia. Keiran explains why he thinks this story might be cutting through politically beyond the usual Westminster bubble chatter. Keiran…

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Lord Chancellor David Gauke becomes 3/1 favourite for next Cabinet minister out after the High Court blocks the release of the black cab rapist

Lord Chancellor David Gauke becomes 3/1 favourite for next Cabinet minister out after the High Court blocks the release of the black cab rapist

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Will TMay force him out or not? The big political betting development this afternoon have been a rush of money going on Lord Chancellor, David Gauke for next cabinet exit following a decision earlier by the High Court to block the release of the black cab rapist, John Worboys. The court ruled in favour of two of his victims to overturn a decision to release the black cab rapist. It decided that the Parole Board should make a “fresh determination”…

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This March looks like being the first month since GE2017 when there were more CON lead polls than LAB ones

This March looks like being the first month since GE2017 when there were more CON lead polls than LAB ones

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Has the GE17 effect finally petered out? The above chart based on the Wikipedia table of published voting intention polls is a different way of looking at trends in political opinion. What is shown here is the percentage of polls that had a Labour leads each month and the percentage of published polls that had the Conservatives ahead. The surveys included are the GB ones and do not include the regional polls such as the Scotland/Wales/London specific ones. The chart…

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Suddenly TMay’s survival chances look a lot stronger

Suddenly TMay’s survival chances look a lot stronger

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There’s a Betfair market that hasn’t attracted much attention or liquidity on which of May/Corbyn/Cable/Sturgeon will be the first leader out. I think it would have been better to confine it to the PM and LOTO. What’s been striking is how over the past fortnight Mrs. May, who looked a basket case earlier in the month rated as an 80% chance of being first out, is now at 50%. Meanwhile Corbyn, who was at 2% has now edged up to…

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