So much has been happening politically and yet there’s so little data for us to assess the reaction

So much has been happening politically and yet there’s so little data for us to assess the reaction

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For poll watchers this has been a frustrating period There was a discussion last night on Twitter about the fact that we seem to be seeing so few polls at the moment and this is felt more because so much been happening and those who follow the numbers want to get a sense of whether things are having an impact. How, for instance, is Labour’s vote holding up in the face of the ongoing antisemitism narrative which still rumbles on….

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Moggsy edges up to a new high in the next CON leader betting

Moggsy edges up to a new high in the next CON leader betting

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For the tihrd month in succession ConHome has him as favoured next CON leader We have not looked at this betting market for some time – who is going to be the next Conservative leader after Theresa May – and the latest ConHome survey with Rees-Mogg once again the favoured choice of members is a good peg. You should note that this is NOT an opinion poll and cannot be compared with, say, the recent YouGov LAB members’ survey. But…

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The latest PB/Polling Matters podcast

The latest PB/Polling Matters podcast

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On this week’s podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi focus on recent polling of Labour members by YouGov looking at Corbyn’s job approval rating and their reactions to the recent anti-Semitism row engulfing the party. Leo looks at how these results compare to a similar survey this time last year and Keiran has a bone to pick with how the anti-Semitism numbers were presented in the media. Elsewhere on the show, Keiran and Leo discuss the latest revelations in the…

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Just under nine months to go for Toby Young to win his £15,000 “Boris will be CON leader by 2018” wager

Just under nine months to go for Toby Young to win his £15,000 “Boris will be CON leader by 2018” wager

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My money’s on Nigella Lawson, who accepted the bet, winning Fifteen years ago Toby Young had a bet of £15,000 with Nigella Lawson that Boris Johnson would become Tory leader by 2018. Well the days are ticking away and there are just eight months and 26 days to go for the event to happen and Young to pick up his winnings. In 2011 Tim Montgomerie wrote about the bet on ConHome quoting an article by Young in the Spectator:- Since…

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Don’t be tempted by the Corbyn exit in 2018 bets – he’s as strong as ever within the party

Don’t be tempted by the Corbyn exit in 2018 bets – he’s as strong as ever within the party

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Normally when a leader starts to get into a bit of trouble the enterprising bookmakers begin issuing prices on how long they will survive. We saw that a lot in October after Mrs Mays rather disastrous conference speech. What happened? she sailed through riding the storm and is still there looking even more secure than ever. So although Corbyn has had a less than optimal month, with his response to the Salisbury incident and of course the latest antisemitism issues,…

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YouGov finds that significant numbers of voters now believe there was cheating at the Brexit referendum

YouGov finds that significant numbers of voters now believe there was cheating at the Brexit referendum

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The perception could be highly dangerous as we move forward This is the first time, as far as I can recall, that this line of questioning has been put and the results have to be looked at in the context of all the news that we have had in the past few weeks. I was quite shocked by the figures which are higher than I thought when I just looked at the questions. Full details from the polling can be…

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Introducing my 270/1 shot to win WH2020 – Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper

Introducing my 270/1 shot to win WH2020 – Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper

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Ladbrokes have him at 16/1 for the Democratic nomination It’s just over a year’s time we should be seeing the formal declarations of those entering the run for president in the 2020 White House race and over the ensuing 12 months we are going to hear a lot of speculation about who might put their hats into the ring. The assumption is that Donald Trump will seek a second term and all the focus is on who will be his…

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