Normally when a leader starts to get into a bit of trouble the enterprising bookmakers begin issuing prices on how long they will survive. We saw that a lot in October after Mrs Mays rather disastrous conference speech. What happened? she sailed through riding the storm and is still there looking even more secure than ever.
So although Corbyn has had a less than optimal month, with his response to the Salisbury incident and of course the latest antisemitism issues, I’m not rushing to put money on him going early.
We know, of course, that those who are leaving the party are hostile to Corbyn which means that the bulk of the remaining membership will be even more in his favour. While that remains he will evenutally go of his own accord at a time he wants.
His team have been pretty cack-handed on some aspects particularly on the deletion of his Facebook account which sounded just too contrived and almost an admission that there was something more serious, that hasn’t been discovered, tucked away somewhere.
Ladbrokes have it at 3/1 that he will be out this year though the latest at Betfair is about 9/2 of him not surviving.
I have no idea when he will eventually move on though given how he is perceived to have done so well at the last election in the party his loyalists will very much hope that he’s still around at the next election.