The continuing strength of the SNP makes it is harder for Corbyn to become PM

The continuing strength of the SNP makes it is harder for Corbyn to become PM

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Scottish turbulence not good for the red team Today’s YouGov LAB members has one finding that shows the extraordinary optimism of those who backed Corbyn in the last leadership election. 80% of them told the poster that they believed that Mr Corbyn would at sometime become Prime Minister. Given his age and the current parliamentary situation that essentially means waiting till the next general election and requires two things to happen – Corbyn to retain the leadership and LAB to…

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Playing the long game: what do Labour’s moderates do?

Playing the long game: what do Labour’s moderates do?

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The danger is that the options might be complicity, futility and suicide Keiran Pedley posed a good question on Twitter yesterday, when he asked “I keep seeing people say that Labour moderates should now ‘act’. What does that actually mean?”. The problem is that those demanding action are often demanding the impossible – namely that they remove Corbyn and return Labour to a centre-left social democratic party. The truth that those demanding action won’t face up to is that Corbyn…

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Analysis of the Q1 local by-elections finds CON struggling to benefit from the almost total collapse if the UKIP vote

Analysis of the Q1 local by-elections finds CON struggling to benefit from the almost total collapse if the UKIP vote

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Vote changes from by-elections in previously CON held wards Vote changes from by-elections in previously LAB held wards Vote changes from by-elections in previously UKIP held wards The real story of the local by-elections in the first quarter (and I suspect one that will be repeated in just five weeks time) is the collapse of UKIP losing 90% of it’s vote compared to last time and showing that it’s not just UKIP voters now voting Con, but UKIP candidates not…

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Right turn ahead. The Hungarian general election

Right turn ahead. The Hungarian general election

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Hungary is the holding pen of Europe. Sat on the Great Hungarian Plain, which is effectively the most westward of the steppes, it is no coincidence that successive invasions over many eras have come through Hungary and stopped at Vienna, from the Mongols to the Turks to the waves of migrants in 2015 – it is the line of least resistance. The last hundred years have not been good for Hungary. It lost two thirds of its territory at the…

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A year to go until Brexit day and punters think there’s a 57% chance of the UK leaving the EU on time

A year to go until Brexit day and punters think there’s a 57% chance of the UK leaving the EU on time

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Betdata.io The chart shows the movement on the Betfair brexit betting market since March 29th last year when article 50 was invoked. As can be seen there has been quite a change particularly in the past few weeks and now the money is going on the UK leaving the EU on March 29th 2019. This is all based on the Betfair betting exchange where different punters set the odds and not the bookmaker. For an exchange brings together those who…

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A year to go till Brexit and the latest YouGov tracker has Britain as divided as ever

A year to go till Brexit and the latest YouGov tracker has Britain as divided as ever

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A year to go and the latest chart based on the YouGov Brexit tracker pic.twitter.com/cqW6hhQL4z — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 29, 2018 Latest YouGov Brexit tracker finds "wrong to leave" once again with a lead.In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the EU? Right 42% -1Wrong 45% =DK 14% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 29, 2018 Chart with LAB voter split on Brexit tracker in latest YouGov poll pic.twitter.com/gyLXN4NQuo — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB)…

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The PB / Polling Matters podcast returns!

The PB / Polling Matters podcast returns!

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As a new YouGov poll shows the Tories 4 points ahead, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discuss the untold story of the recent Conservative resurgence in the polls and ask what is behind it and does it matter? Catching up on recent events, Keiran and Leo also discuss the Salisbury attack and delve into recent polling around its aftermath and Russia. Keiran explains why he thinks this story might be cutting through politically beyond the usual Westminster bubble chatter. Keiran…

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Lord Chancellor David Gauke becomes 3/1 favourite for next Cabinet minister out after the High Court blocks the release of the black cab rapist

Lord Chancellor David Gauke becomes 3/1 favourite for next Cabinet minister out after the High Court blocks the release of the black cab rapist

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Will TMay force him out or not? The big political betting development this afternoon have been a rush of money going on Lord Chancellor, David Gauke for next cabinet exit following a decision earlier by the High Court to block the release of the black cab rapist, John Worboys. The court ruled in favour of two of his victims to overturn a decision to release the black cab rapist. It decided that the Parole Board should make a “fresh determination”…

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