The latest PB/Polling Matters podcast

The latest PB/Polling Matters podcast

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On this week’s podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi focus on recent polling of Labour members by YouGov looking at Corbyn’s job approval rating and their reactions to the recent anti-Semitism row engulfing the party. Leo looks at how these results compare to a similar survey this time last year and Keiran has a bone to pick with how the anti-Semitism numbers were presented in the media. Elsewhere on the show, Keiran and Leo discuss the latest revelations in the…

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Just under nine months to go for Toby Young to win his £15,000 “Boris will be CON leader by 2018” wager

Just under nine months to go for Toby Young to win his £15,000 “Boris will be CON leader by 2018” wager

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My money’s on Nigella Lawson, who accepted the bet, winning Fifteen years ago Toby Young had a bet of £15,000 with Nigella Lawson that Boris Johnson would become Tory leader by 2018. Well the days are ticking away and there are just eight months and 26 days to go for the event to happen and Young to pick up his winnings. In 2011 Tim Montgomerie wrote about the bet on ConHome quoting an article by Young in the Spectator:- Since…

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Don’t be tempted by the Corbyn exit in 2018 bets – he’s as strong as ever within the party

Don’t be tempted by the Corbyn exit in 2018 bets – he’s as strong as ever within the party

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Normally when a leader starts to get into a bit of trouble the enterprising bookmakers begin issuing prices on how long they will survive. We saw that a lot in October after Mrs Mays rather disastrous conference speech. What happened? she sailed through riding the storm and is still there looking even more secure than ever. So although Corbyn has had a less than optimal month, with his response to the Salisbury incident and of course the latest antisemitism issues,…

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YouGov finds that significant numbers of voters now believe there was cheating at the Brexit referendum

YouGov finds that significant numbers of voters now believe there was cheating at the Brexit referendum

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The perception could be highly dangerous as we move forward This is the first time, as far as I can recall, that this line of questioning has been put and the results have to be looked at in the context of all the news that we have had in the past few weeks. I was quite shocked by the figures which are higher than I thought when I just looked at the questions. Full details from the polling can be…

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Introducing my 270/1 shot to win WH2020 – Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper

Introducing my 270/1 shot to win WH2020 – Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper

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Ladbrokes have him at 16/1 for the Democratic nomination It’s just over a year’s time we should be seeing the formal declarations of those entering the run for president in the 2020 White House race and over the ensuing 12 months we are going to hear a lot of speculation about who might put their hats into the ring. The assumption is that Donald Trump will seek a second term and all the focus is on who will be his…

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Based on last night Corbyn doesn’t look as though he’s treating LAB’s antisemitism crisis seriously

Based on last night Corbyn doesn’t look as though he’s treating LAB’s antisemitism crisis seriously

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Latest from @GuidoFawkes Corbyn Tonight Met Far-Left Group Who Called For Destruction of Israel and Attacked Critics as "Non-Jews" https://t.co/7JBC6uQfgS via — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 2, 2018 And David Herdson’s right – one of the attendees has leaked this Corbyn meets with political extremists is hardly news. What is interesting is that someone's leaked the picture here, presumably to damage Corbyn. Question is: is it a member of Jewdas, someone on his own team, or a third party? There…

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Would Joe Biden beat Donald Trump? See this interesting analysis

Would Joe Biden beat Donald Trump? See this interesting analysis

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I rather like this approach to looking at the White House race because this is a state battle as we saw in 2016 when Hillary Clinton won the popular vote but Trump made it because he picked up several key states by very small margins. Currently you can get Biden at 20/1 for the Presidency and Sanders at 12/1. I’m not tempted at these odds given how long you would have to wait and so much could happen in the…

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The one way for LAB to close down its antisemitism crisis is for Corbyn to go but that is not going to happen

The one way for LAB to close down its antisemitism crisis is for Corbyn to go but that is not going to happen

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This continues to dominate the headlines The ongoing narrative over anti-semitism within the Labour Party has now gone beyond the point when the former spin doctor, Alastair Campbell, said that a bad news story should have been closed down. Tony Blair’s spin doctor used to observe that if one was running more than a week after it started then it was serious. By that judgement this is really starting to look very problematical for Labour and Mr Corbyn and it’s…

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