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Why one ex-LAB member has decided to rejoin the party

7/4/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The UK will never get a credible, electable opposition unless the centre-left commits to the Labour party, argues Joff Wild Has there been a more depressing time to be on the centre-left of British politics than now? The Labour party’s descent into institutionalised anti-Semitism is no huge surprise to those of us who have been watching the far-left for years, but the speed with which it has happened, the extent to which has occurred and the willingness of so many…

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Into the political void opened between Brexit Tories and Corbynite Labour there came … no-one

7/4/2018 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

What’s happened to the Others? “Go back to your constituencies and prepare for government!” David Steel’s rather premature exhortation to his activists at the 1981 Liberal Conference is remembered – to the extent that it’s remembered at all – as a classic example of over-optimism verging into hubris. It shouldn’t be. For a brief moment, there really was a genuine chance that the old Lab-Con dominance had been broken. At the last poll before the conference, the SDP-Liberal Alliance had…

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Gains for the LDs and Greens the highlights of this week’s local elections

6/4/2018 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Caol and Mallig on Highland (SNP defence) First Preferences: Con 183 (9% unchanged on last time), Lib Dem 658 (31% +22% on last time), Campbell (Ind) 98 (5%), MacKinnon (Ind) 146 (7%), SNP 574 (27%, Wood (Ind) 454 (21%) (No Lab candidate this time -6%, Total Independent vote: 698 (33% -19% on last time) Liberal Democrat lead of 84 (4%) on a swing of 20.5% from Ind to Lib Dem No candidate elected on first count, Campbell (Ind) eliminated Second…

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By 61-19 those sampled by YouGov say it should be legal to use force to kill in defence of home

6/4/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Clearly the Hither Green incident has attracted an enormous amount of attention and the news about the background of the person who was killed has also reinforced thinking. The party splits on this are hardly surprising with UKIP backers the most likely to support the notion and Lib Dems voters the least. The older you are, as you might expect the more likely you were in the poll to back the idea. Whether this will actually lead to legislation I…

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So much has been happening politically and yet there’s so little data for us to assess the reaction

6/4/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

For poll watchers this has been a frustrating period There was a discussion last night on Twitter about the fact that we seem to be seeing so few polls at the moment and this is felt more because so much been happening and those who follow the numbers want to get a sense of whether things are having an impact. How, for instance, is Labour’s vote holding up in the face of the ongoing antisemitism narrative which still rumbles on….

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The demographics of Brexit – how things are projected to change

5/4/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

New research from @robfordmancs and @smthgsmthg: due to changes in the demographic make-up of the UK, all else being equal there will be a 52-48 majority for Remain by 2021 https://t.co/qmVb33TeoO pic.twitter.com/EUahMHuFKt — UK in a Changing EU (@UKandEU) April 5, 2018

Moggsy edges up to a new high in the next CON leader betting

5/4/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

For the tihrd month in succession ConHome has him as favoured next CON leader We have not looked at this betting market for some time – who is going to be the next Conservative leader after Theresa May – and the latest ConHome survey with Rees-Mogg once again the favoured choice of members is a good peg. You should note that this is NOT an opinion poll and cannot be compared with, say, the recent YouGov LAB members’ survey. But…

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The latest PB/Polling Matters podcast

4/4/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

On this week’s podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi focus on recent polling of Labour members by YouGov looking at Corbyn’s job approval rating and their reactions to the recent anti-Semitism row engulfing the party. Leo looks at how these results compare to a similar survey this time last year and Keiran has a bone to pick with how the anti-Semitism numbers were presented in the media. Elsewhere on the show, Keiran and Leo discuss the latest revelations in the…

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