If the Windrush affair has an impact in the polls expect it to be seen most in the leader ratings not voting intention

If the Windrush affair has an impact in the polls expect it to be seen most in the leader ratings not voting intention

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Could it reverse TMay’s steady recovery since GE2017? Above is a chart based on Opinium’s net approval ratings for the PM since GE2017. I choose this pollster because it is one of just two that just about always every month publish the latest leader ratings which gives us enough data points for analysis. I wish other firms would follow this lead. As can be seen TMay made something of a recovery in the immediate post-election period until October when the…

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Why betting on the 2020 Republican nomination is better value than the Trump survival market

Why betting on the 2020 Republican nomination is better value than the Trump survival market

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Betdata.io Time for a bet on him not getting the GOP 2020 nomination? While the focus on in the UK has been on the Syrian crisis, Mrs May and the Windrush generation and the ongoing divide within LAB over anti-semitism the news from the United States has been less promising for the survival of the President. The ramifications of the former FBI director, James Comey, going on TV last night together with speculation over what will come out of last…

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Latest PB/Polling Matters podcast: Are you racist? Syrian airstrikes & the Lords report on polling

Latest PB/Polling Matters podcast: Are you racist? Syrian airstrikes & the Lords report on polling

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On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran Pedley is joined by Matt Singh (Number Cruncher) and Adam Drummond (Opinium) to discuss: 1) Why voting intention polls and perceptions of party leaders seem to be moving in different directions 2) Reactions to the Windrush scandal and how pollsters deal with sensitive questions around immigration 3) An exclusive survey from Opinium for PB that shows 1 in 10 Brits believe the Russian military accusation that Britain staged the Douma chemical attack in…

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Jeremy Hunt – 4th favourite to succeed TMay – being investigated by Parliamentary Standards Commissioner

Jeremy Hunt – 4th favourite to succeed TMay – being investigated by Parliamentary Standards Commissioner

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The Health Secretary, Jeremy Hunt, is being investigated by the Parliamentary Standards Commissioner for allegedly breaching the MPs' code of conduct over declaration of his biz interests – No 10 say no breach, awkward for a Cabinet minister — Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) April 18, 2018 All we have at the moment is the Laura Kuenssberg tweet above but this does sound possibly serious for the Health Secretary. The main betting markets that could be affected are the next CON leader…

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If TMay and Corbyn are still there at the next election then Windrush & antisemitism could still be dogging them

If TMay and Corbyn are still there at the next election then Windrush & antisemitism could still be dogging them

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These are leadership more than party issues What a dramatic few days for both the prime minister and the leader of the opposition. Two huge issues continue to dominate the news which are big negatives for each of them respectively. The Windrush affair, which is being juxtaposed with the meeting of Commonwealth leaders, is a reminder of how Theresa May handled things when she was in the Home Office from 2010 to 2016. It was under her watch that the…

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Corbyn accused of being a coward for leaving the chamber at the start of the antisemitism debate

Corbyn accused of being a coward for leaving the chamber at the start of the antisemitism debate

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https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/986288625238372352?s=20 https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/986290404919300099?s=20 Ever seen him call out a racist on his own side?Of course you haven’t, he’s always been a coward with a thin skin. — ForgottenGenius (@ExStrategist) April 17, 2018 From the beginning of all this I think he’s been more guilty of cowardice than anything else. He won’t confront; instead he retreats to his adoring base, again and again. — Benji Lanyado (@benjilanyado) April 17, 2018 https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/986294293458571265?s=20

If there’s a high turnout of Jewish voters in this key ward then LAB’s main London hope could be thwarted

If there’s a high turnout of Jewish voters in this key ward then LAB’s main London hope could be thwarted

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Sean Fear rates a Barnet CON hold a 50-50 chance I’ve just had a bet at 23/10 with Ladbrokes that the Conservatives will hold on to Barnet in the local elections on May 3rd. My reason is an assessment by long standing PB contributor, Sean Fear, that this is a 50-50 chance and in such cases the betting option that’s longer than evens is the value bet. Sean has long experience of London elections and I for one take notice…

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The commentators blaming TMay for the Windrush affair are right – she not ARudd but should be carrying the can

The commentators blaming TMay for the Windrush affair are right – she not ARudd but should be carrying the can

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The Windrush scandal is Theresa May’s creation, borne of an innate inability to equate ‘immigrant’ with ‘person’. It’s a hefty accusation, I know, but it makes sense of almost everything she’s done since 2010. Lying about a cat; Go Home vans; subsuming Ukip; EU citizens as cards. — James O'Brien (@mrjamesob) April 17, 2018 The arbitrary imprisonment of Paulette Wilson, aged 61, who lived lawfully in UK for 50 years is chilling. It could never happen in UK. That it…

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