Why betting on the 2020 Republican nomination is better value than the Trump survival market

Why betting on the 2020 Republican nomination is better value than the Trump survival market


Time for a bet on him not getting the GOP 2020 nomination?

While the focus on in the UK has been on the Syrian crisis, Mrs May and the Windrush generation and the ongoing divide within LAB over anti-semitism the news from the United States has been less promising for the survival of the President.

The ramifications of the former FBI director, James Comey, going on TV last night together with speculation over what will come out of last week’s raid on the Trump family lawyer have started to raise a little bit more doubt about whether he’s actually going to make it through to January 2021.

This has been reflected in the Betfair exchange betting market as can be seen in the chart above. But even with all the latest developments the balance is that punters still think he will make it through his first term.

The position of the controversial property magma turned reality TV star turned president is very much dominating the news agenda in the US with every twist and turn been given it lots of coverage.

As I have said before I find it very difficult to come to a view on this because the general presumption with politicians in trouble is that they generally survive but not always.

Although Mr trump has only actually been in office for 15 months the US election cycle will move very quickly after the November midterms to who will win the presidential election in 2020.

    To my mind the best “will be survive” bet is not on the above market but whether he’ll get the 2020 Republican nomination. That currently rates his chances at a 58% chance so you a lay would give you better odds than evens. That’s in line with the above market with more options

Trump could still get to the end of his first term and not be the nominee.

Mike Smithson

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