It is clear someone is leaking to damage Amber Rudd and I think she’s toast

It is clear someone is leaking to damage Amber Rudd and I think she’s toast

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BREAKING: Amber Rudd letter to PM reveals 'ambitious but deliverable' removals target https://t.co/pCV3WHqHsd — The Guardian (@guardian) April 29, 2018 Mrs May’s firewall looks like toast after this Guardian revelation In the past few days it is obvious that someone is leaking relentlessly against Amber Rudd to force her out. It might be the fact that I tipped Amber Rudd as next out of the cabinet at 33/1 is colouring my view but I’m not sure she’s going to recover…

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If you fancy a 2% return in a little over 8 months this is the bet for you

If you fancy a 2% return in a little over 8 months this is the bet for you

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William Hill have a market on whether there will be a second EU in/out referendum before the 1st of January 2019, I’m backing the No side. Logistically I just cannot see a referendum happening this year. It would require legislation to be passed by both parts of Parliament, given the number of Leavers in both places, and Mrs May’s lack of majority in both Houses such a bill is likely to get bogged down in Parliamentary trench warfare. I suspect…

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Looking ahead to the 2018 Nobel Peace Prize winner

Looking ahead to the 2018 Nobel Peace Prize winner

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I suppose it's good that they are getting rid of the nukes and all that, but it's not much good for this year's Nobel Peace Prize betting market. pic.twitter.com/o9Ahh6UQoF — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) April 27, 2018 Why I think the Nobel Committee will blow an ill wind for Trump Following this week’s events on the Korean peninsula you can see why Kim and Moon are the favourites to win the award. I’m going to avoid this market from Ladbrokes as…

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Ladbrokes make Michael Gove favourite to succeed Rudd as HomeSec

Ladbrokes make Michael Gove favourite to succeed Rudd as HomeSec

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But would TMay really appoint him? The firm’s prices are here:- Next Home Secretary Michael Gove 4/1 Jeremy Hunt 6/1 James Brokenshire 8/1 Diane Abbott 8/1 Damian Hinds 10/1 David Gauke 10/1 Jacob Rees-Mogg 10/1 Karen Bradley 10/1 12/1 bar At this stage I’m certainly not betting on this market. Firstly we don’t know whether Amber Road will indeed be leaving and the chances are that she will be staying although she could be in a pickle if it is…

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Amber warning: Rudd is safe – for now

Amber warning: Rudd is safe – for now

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Labour’s front-bench inexperience has been shown up as much as Rudd’s errors Politics is not just showbiz for ugly people; it’s also sport for the energetic, enthusiastic, passionate but physically average. Although virtually all politicians go into it because they believe strongly in at least some aspects of what their party stands for and because they want to see the reforms they champion implemented, most also simply enjoy practising politics – the camaraderie of (and rivalry within) the teams, the…

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Michael Gove looks as though he has his eye on Theresa’s job

Michael Gove looks as though he has his eye on Theresa’s job

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Now a clear third in the betting behind Moggsy & BoJo The machinations in the Conservative Party about Brexit and Windrush has set off a little bit of a flurry of betting on the next party leader market which is currently the busiest UK politics market on Betfair. The beleaguered Home Secretary, Amber Rudd, has now slipped down to be a 3% chance. Meanwhile Michael Gove has edged up to a clear 3rd place on a 7% chance. He’s behind…

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Tonight’s PB/Polling Matters podcast featuring Professor Colin Rallings

Tonight’s PB/Polling Matters podcast featuring Professor Colin Rallings

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On this week’s podcast Keiran Pedley is joined by Professor Colin Rallings of the University of Plymouth to look ahead to next week’s local elections. Rallings breaks down which results to look out for and what they might mean for the future with some interesting insight into how the UKIP vote continues to unwind across the country and how Labour might do in London following today’s YouGov poll for Queen Mary University. Keiran Pedley Follow @KeiranPedley Tweet